FOLLOW-UP (Leha: not a bug, follow-up).
get_macro_series / get_latest_macro defaulted region='rf', but CBR mortgage_*
series live under 'sverdl' in macro_indicator (key_rate under 'rf'). Only caller
passes region explicitly so no active leak, but a future caller omitting region
would silently get None — latent footgun. region now str|None; when None →
_canonical_region (mortgage set sourced from _CBR_SERIES_MAP, single source of
truth). Explicit region always wins → existing callers unchanged. Region-binding
tests added. 159 tests pass.
Documented (NOT code-fixed — upstream data-quality): mortgage_debt /
mortgage_overdue stay empty in macro_indicator because cbr_mortgage_series.period
holds value-like garbage (e.g. '10054588.0') for the Debt series — corruption
from the upstream CBR-XLSX scraper that built domrf.db (imported verbatim by
44_import_anton_db.py), NOT an ingest bug. 123_macro_indicator.sql correctly
skips unparseable periods. Needs a separate scraper re-ingest (idempotent
backfill once period is valid). Refs #945
REOPENED 951-B §9.6.
PART A: fix look-ahead leakage in backtest_rate_sensitivity --detrend. The
ln(units) trend was fit over train+test then split, so test data shaped the
detrend and inflated the OOS hit-rate. _detrend_log now takes fit_n; backtest_tier
fits the trend on TRAIN months only (same split evaluate_oos uses) and projects
(a,b) point-in-time onto test. Default fit_n=None preserves prior behaviour.
PART B (DoD): new app/services/forecasting/regression.py — Almon polynomial
distributed-lag (deg 2) of Δln(district demand) on Δkey_rate lags 0..6 via
OLS-on-Almon-regressors (numpy lstsq) + per-lag reconstruction + manual
Newey-West HAC SEs (NO statsmodels). Output {best_lag_months, coef=long-run
multiplier, x_pct, r2, n, per_lag_coef, hac_se,...}; gate mirrors _elasticity_coef
(n<30 OR R²<0.1 OR Σβ≥0 → fallback); §9.6 phrase from the lag shape. ADVISORY,
shipped standalone (integration point documented), NOT wired — protects the live
compute_rate_sensitivity consumers.
125+31 tests (synthetic known-lag recovery, HAC computed/differs-from-OLS,
fallback gating, no-leakage detrend). ruff clean. Refs #978
REOPENED — normalize.py was never created; only rate-regime discount existed.
New backend/app/services/forecasting/normalize.py with normalize_demand(series):
multiplicative month-of-year deseasonalization of the raw monthly demand
SalesSeries (§9.4). Pure/deterministic; min-data guard (<2 full years / empty
month / overall_mean<=0 → factor 1.0, no divide-by-zero, no thin-data noise).
Exposes seasonal factors for explainability. Synthetic unit test: seasonality
removed (month means equalised), flat unchanged, thin/empty/all-zero safe.
DoD (module + doc + test) MET. Production wiring into
rate_sensitivity._align_sales_deltas DEFERRED (documented TODO): deseasonalizing
the short rate-driven series perturbs the recovered β/lag on current data —
needs a points-per-month gate / joint seasonal+rate estimation + backtest before
wiring. Forecast stack is advisory regardless. Refs #979
REOPENED#980: when effective competing supply is exhausted under positive demand
(projected_supply<=0, demand>0), deficit_index now caps to +1.0 (peak of [-1,+1])
instead of None. balance_ratio stays None (demand/0 undefined), but the strongest
build signal no longer reads downstream as thin data (market_fit fell to 0.5,
what_to_build dropped the cell). No-signal (supply<=0 AND demand<=0) stays None.
REOPENED#981: MAI now uses CBR key rate (macro_indicator key_rate/rf via
get_monthly_macro) as the market borrowing-cost proxy (~16-21%) instead of the
subsidized weighted rate (~7.83%), per §7.9 DoD. rate_kind='key_rate_proxy'.
If key_rate absent → rate_kind='market_unavailable' (no silent subsidy fallback).
Income (#946) still missing → payment_to_income None, confidence low.
778 forecasting tests green. Refs #980#981
REOPENED. PDF + Excel exporters read non-existent dict keys, so demand/supply/
scenario columns silently rendered "—". Tests passed only because the fixtures
were stale (hand-typed the same wrong keys → fixture agreed with buggy exporter).
- future_market: demand/supply → projected_demand_units/projected_supply_units
- scenarios: drop non-existent per-scenario "overall"; show primary-horizon
deficit_index from ScenarioForecast.forecasts (scoring.overall was NOT broken)
- Excel #991: add missing future_supply (index + breakdown) + confidence.factors
sections; add future_supply to PDF for parity
- tests: rebuild forecast/scenario fixtures from real DemandSupplyForecast /
ScenarioForecast as_dict(); contract-key regression guards fail on key-drift
(verified: reintroducing old keys fails the new tests). 28 passed.
Refs #989#991
REOPENED. _SALES_WINDOW_SQL derived "sales in window" from objective_lots_history
snapshots, but history is only ~17 days deep — every currently-sold lot had a
sold-snapshot in the window, so window-sales collapsed into the entire cumulative
sold stock (Автовокзал 6mo: 33,245 vs real ~2,308). Inflated absorption_rate
(~235%/mo with confidence=high), months_of_supply, unit_velocity, liquidity,
demand_concentration → contaminated forecast #950/#952.
Count window sales directly from objective_lots by contract_date in the window
(the real sale date — present on 100% of sold lots: 41,091/41,091). Return
contract of _query_sales_window unchanged (units/area/by-room ROLLUP); downstream
formulas untouched. Removed the now-dead objective_lots_history JOIN/CTE.
Regression test: lots sold outside window (contract_date out of range) not counted
(41,091 cumulative vs 2,308 window → absorption 2.35→0.04). 288 tests green.
Verification = prod compute_market_metrics(Автовокзал) post-deploy. Refs #949
REOPENED. L3 future-supply rows are computed per (district_name, dev_group_name)
but dev_group_name was never a key column — only embedded in method text. With
complex_id/obj_class NULL for L3, every dev_group of a district collapsed to one
upsert key → ~95.6% loss. Ground-truth (Академический, prod): should be 13,808
units / 15 dev_groups / 54 objects; only 1 row / 607 units survived.
Migration 128: ADD COLUMN supply_layers.dev_group_name TEXT + rebuild
uq_supply_layers_logical to (layer, district_name, complex_id, obj_class,
dev_group_name, source, snapshot_date) NULLS NOT DISTINCT (L1/L2 dev_group_name
NULL stays transparent → their dedup unchanged; L3 distinct groups no longer
collapse). Dry-run-verified vs prod catalog (applies clean, ROLLBACK clean).
Worker: SupplyLayerRow gains dev_group_name (L1/L2=None, L3=group); _UPSERT_SQL
adds it to INSERT/VALUES (CAST(:dev_group_name AS text)) + ON CONFLICT (key col,
not in DO UPDATE SET). Service+worker regression tests assert same-district/
different-dev_group → distinct keys (no collapse). 234 supply tests pass.
Deploy applies migration before container restart; collapsed data self-heals on
next supply_layers_refresh. Verification = prod re-measure post-deploy.
Refs #970
Round 1 (commit bcd7dc8) был broken: на 2-bucket входах surplus уходил в free
полностью без учёта capacity → free превышал cap → следующая итерация
clamp'ировала его и наоборот. Infinite oscillation в FastAPI handler.
Round 2 fix per review BLOCK (#282 comment):
- Surplus распределяется пропорционально available capacity (cap - v),
не текущему v. Free никогда не вылетит выше cap.
- free = строго < cap (не <=) — иначе деление на 0 capacity.
- Hard guard `for _ in range(N+1)` — гарантированно завершается.
- Pathological (surplus > total_capacity): возвращаем оригинальный pct_map
+ cap_skipped=True (sum=100 invariant сохранён).
- Hamilton round вынесен в _hamilton_round() helper.
Tests:
- 2-bucket cases (90/10, 70/30, 99/1) expected cap_skipped=True
- test_cap_iteration_count_bounded — все pathological завершаются < 100ms
- All 13 cases verified standalone (3 fast-path + 7 reproduced + 3 pathological)
Раньше _VELOCITY_DIVISORS делил агрегаты mv_layout_velocity (24 мес)
на 4/12 для quarter/year, не меняя реальное окно данных. Теперь
inline SQL из objective_corpus_room_month с CAST(:window_interval AS interval).
velocity_per_month = deals_window / months_in_window (1.0/3.0/12.0).
Разные time_window → разные строки из БД → разный mix/velocity/jk_count.
Closes (epic part) #271 item 1
Backend (quarter_dump_lookup.py):
- _acquire_harvest_lock: Redis SETNX TTL=120s на quarter, защищает от burst
N concurrent analyze, ставящих N одинаковых harvest task в очередь
- _trigger_harvest: использует lock перед apply_async, возвращает False если
lock уже взят (другой запрос триггернул раньше)
- make_empty_result/EMPTY_DUMP_RESULT: новое поле harvest_eta_seconds в
nspd_dump dict, типичный harvest_quarter = 60с
- /analyze: пробрасывает поле через nspd_dump dict (нет typed schema —
response_model=None для /analyze endpoint, dict уходит как есть)
Frontend (NspdFreshnessBadge, NspdZoningBlock):
- Countdown «НСПД: загрузка ~Nс» вместо бесконечного спиннера
- После остановки countdown (remaining=0) NspdZoningBlock показывает
«загрузка дольше обычного» + ссылку на ПКК вместо infinite skeleton
Tests: 5 новых unit + 2 для empty_result schema (всего +7, pass)
Closes#234 (UX-side; data-side resolves когда Sub-PR B + D merged).
