17 commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
Light1YT	3ecfc2d7dc	feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) ... REOPENED — normalize.py was never created; only rate-regime discount existed. New backend/app/services/forecasting/normalize.py with normalize_demand(series): multiplicative month-of-year deseasonalization of the raw monthly demand SalesSeries (§9.4). Pure/deterministic; min-data guard (<2 full years / empty month / overall_mean<=0 → factor 1.0, no divide-by-zero, no thin-data noise). Exposes seasonal factors for explainability. Synthetic unit test: seasonality removed (month means equalised), flat unchanged, thin/empty/all-zero safe. DoD (module + doc + test) MET. Production wiring into rate_sensitivity._align_sales_deltas DEFERRED (documented TODO): deseasonalizing the short rate-driven series perturbs the recovered β/lag on current data — needs a points-per-month gate / joint seasonal+rate estimation + backtest before wiring. Forecast stack is advisory regardless. Refs #979	2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
Light1YT	9ff80f3ac0	fix(forecasting): #980 strongest deficit→deficit_index +1.0; #981 MAI uses CBR key rate ... REOPENED #980: when effective competing supply is exhausted under positive demand (projected_supply<=0, demand>0), deficit_index now caps to +1.0 (peak of [-1,+1]) instead of None. balance_ratio stays None (demand/0 undefined), but the strongest build signal no longer reads downstream as thin data (market_fit fell to 0.5, what_to_build dropped the cell). No-signal (supply<=0 AND demand<=0) stays None. REOPENED #981: MAI now uses CBR key rate (macro_indicator key_rate/rf via get_monthly_macro) as the market borrowing-cost proxy (~16-21%) instead of the subsidized weighted rate (~7.83%), per §7.9 DoD. rate_kind='key_rate_proxy'. If key_rate absent → rate_kind='market_unavailable' (no silent subsidy fallback). Income (#946) still missing → payment_to_income None, confidence low. 778 forecasting tests green. Refs #980 #981	2026-06-04 11:10:26 +05:00
bot-backend	fc312fe606	feat(forecasting): §13 report assembler (#988, 955-A2) (#1021)	2026-06-03 08:51:23 +00:00
bot-backend	47fe5a55eb	feat(forecasting): §15 confidence engine v2 (#990, 955-A4) (#1020)	2026-06-03 08:41:07 +00:00
bot-backend	75c9b34987	feat(forecasting): §13 SiteFinderReport object (#987, 955-A1) (#1019)	2026-06-03 08:33:01 +00:00
bot-backend	008f9d9ed1	feat(forecasting): §25 six special indices (#986, 954-C) (#1018)	2026-06-03 08:24:08 +00:00
bot-backend	98dea0315a	feat(forecasting): §14.2 product scoring card (#985, 954-B) (#1017)	2026-06-03 08:11:54 +00:00
bot-backend	8057468c13	feat(forecasting): §11 macro-scenarios (#984, 954-A) (#1016)	2026-06-03 07:59:22 +00:00
bot-backend	691ccef4b7	feat(forecasting): class/commercial/USP §10.2/10.4/10.5 + §16 (#983, 953-B) (#1015)	2026-06-03 07:52:24 +00:00
bot-backend	72e9b24f2c	feat(recommend): horizon-aware recommend_mix opt-in overlay (#982, 953-A) (#1014)	2026-06-03 07:40:33 +00:00
bot-backend	489e380f1e	feat(forecasting): what-to-build ranker + MAI proxy (#981, 952-B) (#1013)	2026-06-03 07:07:17 +00:00
bot-backend	70ffa399fc	feat(forecasting): demand-supply forecast engine (#980, 952-A) (#1012)	2026-06-03 06:56:33 +00:00
bot-backend	9758e21cbd	feat(forecasting): §9.4 demand-normalization coefficient (#951f, advisory) (#1011)	2026-06-03 06:28:14 +00:00
bot-backend	69ad6c87fc	feat(forecasting): §9.5 macro coefficient (#951e, advisory) (#1010)	2026-06-03 06:20:04 +00:00
bot-backend	f41e2536d8	feat(forecasting): §9.6 key-rate sensitivity module (#951d, advisory) (#1009)	2026-06-03 06:06:16 +00:00
bot-backend	c7bfc9e22a	feat(forecasting): monthly sales series builder for §9.6 (#951c) (#1008)	2026-06-03 05:52:33 +00:00
bot-backend	ace3b99508	feat(forecasting): monthly macro series + regime classifier (#951b) (#1007)	2026-06-03 05:37:43 +00:00