tradein-mvp/backend/app/core/config.py

@@ -106,6 +106,25 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     estimate_calibrated_pi_enabled: bool = True
     estimate_pi_low_mult: float = 0.649  # empirical p10 of sold/expected_sold (#1966, n=2366)
     estimate_pi_high_mult: float = 1.392  # empirical p90 of sold/expected_sold (#1966, n=2366)
+    # ── #2002: hedonic year+area correction на точку expected_sold ─────────────
+    # Диагноз: estimator систематически промахивается по эре дома + размеру —
+    # недооценивает новостройки, плохо держит крупные лоты. Held-out fit (n=2366
+    # прод-сделок, 2026-06-27) регрессии log(actual_sold/expected_sold) ~ year +
+    # ln(area) даёт мультипликативный фактор, применяемый к expected_sold.
+    #   factor = exp(b0 + b_year*(year-2000)/20 + b_larea*ln(area)), clamp [min,max].
+    # ВАЖНО: цифры ниже — метрики ТОГО ЖЕ 2366-сделочного held-out FIT, а НЕ
+    # 277-сделочного frozen backtest-фикстура, на котором гоняется regression-gate
+    # (там overall expected_sold MAPE 18.63→14.24):
+    #   held-out median-abs-error 18.5%→16.1%; бизнес bias −22%→−14% (MAPE 22.3→15.5),
+    #   эконом/комфорт/премиум лучше, элит без изменений (no harm).
+    # После фактора заново применяется le_asking-кламп (expected_sold ≤ asking).
+    # OFF ⇒ точно старое поведение expected_sold.
+    estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled: bool = True
+    estimate_hedonic_b0: float = 0.6146  # fit log(sold/es) ~ year + ln(area), n=2366 (#2002)
+    estimate_hedonic_year_coef: float = 0.1220  # per (year-2000)/20
+    estimate_hedonic_larea_coef: float = -0.1603  # per ln(area_m2)
+    estimate_hedonic_factor_min: float = 0.75
+    estimate_hedonic_factor_max: float = 1.30
     # ── #1795: premium headline anti-inflation (4 фикса, каждый за флагом) ──────
     # Диагноз: бизнес/премиум headline завышается ~2× vs медиана реальных ДКП
     # (Малышева 30 = 296k при median сделок 138k). Эконом/комфорт сходятся ±5%.

tradein-mvp/backend/app/services/estimator.py

@@ -2507,6 +2507,39 @@ def _price_from_inputs(
             effective_ratio = 1.0
         expected_sold_per_m2 = round(median_ppm2 * effective_ratio)
         expected_sold_price = round(median_price * effective_ratio)
+        # #2002: hedonic year+area correction на ТОЧКУ expected_sold. Fit
+        # log(actual_sold/expected_sold) ~ year + ln(area) по 2366 прод-сделкам:
+        # factor = exp(b0 + b_year*(year-2000)/20 + b_larea*ln(area)), clamp [min,max].
+        # Применяется ДО калиброванного PI-блока ниже, чтобы диапазон считался
+        # вокруг скорректированной точки. OFF ⇒ точно старое expected_sold.
+        if (
+            settings.estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled
+            and expected_sold_price
+            and area_m2
+            and area_m2 > 0
+        ):
+            _yr = ((target_year - 2000) / 20.0) if target_year else 0.0
+            _factor = math.exp(
+                settings.estimate_hedonic_b0
+                + settings.estimate_hedonic_year_coef * _yr
+                + settings.estimate_hedonic_larea_coef * math.log(area_m2)
+            )
+            _factor = max(
+                settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_min,
+                min(settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_max, _factor),
+            )
+            if expected_sold_per_m2:
+                expected_sold_per_m2 = round(expected_sold_per_m2 * _factor)
+            expected_sold_price = round(expected_sold_price * _factor)
+        # #2002: re-assert the le_asking invariant — the hedonic factor (≤1.30) can
+        # push expected_sold above the asking headline (median) for new/small lots,
+        # which is an overpay risk for trade-in. Re-clamp the corrected point back to
+        # the headline so the calibrated PI range below wraps the clamped point.
+        # round(median_ppm2) keeps expected_sold_per_m2 an int (median_ppm2 is float).
+        if settings.estimate_expected_sold_le_asking and expected_sold_price:
+            expected_sold_price = min(expected_sold_price, median_price)
+            if expected_sold_per_m2:
+                expected_sold_per_m2 = min(expected_sold_per_m2, round(median_ppm2))
         if settings.estimate_calibrated_pi_enabled and expected_sold_price:
             # #1966: калиброванный ~80% prediction interval вокруг ТОЧКИ expected_sold.
             # Эмпирически отношение actual_sold_ppm2 / expected_sold_per_m2 по 2366

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/fixtures/backtest_baseline.json

@@ -7,14 +7,14 @@
       "n_covered": 0
     },
     "low": {
-      "coverage_pct": 80.0,
-      "mape_pct": 18.63,
+      "coverage_pct": 81.82,
+      "mape_pct": 13.23,
       "n": 275,
-      "n_covered": 220
+      "n_covered": 225
     },
     "medium": {
       "coverage_pct": 100.0,
-      "mape_pct": 19.18,
+      "mape_pct": 14.64,
       "n": 2,
       "n_covered": 2
     }
@@ -26,95 +26,95 @@
   ],
   "expected_sold": {
     "overall": {
-      "mape_pct": 18.63,
-      "median_bias_pct": -1.2,
+      "mape_pct": 13.23,
+      "median_bias_pct": -2.87,
       "n": 277,
       "n_no_analogs": 0,
-      "p25_pct": -16.25,
-      "p75_pct": 20.26
+      "p25_pct": -14.43,
+      "p75_pct": 12.51
     },
     "per_rooms": {
       "0": {
         "label": "студия",
-        "mape_pct": 27.97,
-        "median_bias_pct": 27.56,
+        "mape_pct": 19.38,
+        "median_bias_pct": 18.1,
         "n": 37,
         "n_no_analogs": 0,
-        "p25_pct": -8.97,
-        "p75_pct": 38.45
+        "p25_pct": 1.66,
+        "p75_pct": 33.53
       },
       "1": {
         "label": "1к",
-        "mape_pct": 19.55,
-        "median_bias_pct": -8.08,
+        "mape_pct": 10.97,
+        "median_bias_pct": -3.47,
         "n": 93,
         "n_no_analogs": 0,
-        "p25_pct": -21.27,
-        "p75_pct": 13.3
+        "p25_pct": -12.48,
+        "p75_pct": 6.98
       },
       "2": {
         "label": "2к",
-        "mape_pct": 16.22,
-        "median_bias_pct": -8.82,
+        "mape_pct": 17.39,
+        "median_bias_pct": -11.71,
         "n": 74,
         "n_no_analogs": 0,
-        "p25_pct": -21.01,
-        "p75_pct": 6.13
+        "p25_pct": -23.37,
+        "p75_pct": -0.36
       },
       "3": {
         "label": "3к",
-        "mape_pct": 10.52,
-        "median_bias_pct": 4.08,
+        "mape_pct": 9.77,
+        "median_bias_pct": -3.08,
         "n": 43,
         "n_no_analogs": 0,
-        "p25_pct": -6.54,
-        "p75_pct": 11.96
+        "p25_pct": -10.26,
+        "p75_pct": 5.77
       },
       "4": {
         "label": "4+",
-        "mape_pct": 23.53,
-        "median_bias_pct": 14.35,
+        "mape_pct": 20.27,
+        "median_bias_pct": 8.54,
         "n": 30,
         "n_no_analogs": 0,
-        "p25_pct": -0.72,
-        "p75_pct": 35.27
+        "p25_pct": -3.78,
+        "p75_pct": 23.54
       }
     },
     "per_segment": {
       "бизнес": {
-        "mape_pct": 22.14,
-        "median_bias_pct": -21.49,
+        "mape_pct": 12.87,
+        "median_bias_pct": -10.19,
         "n": 46,
-        "p25_pct": -28.22,
-        "p75_pct": -9.82
+        "p25_pct": -22.6,
+        "p75_pct": -1.31
       },
       "комфорт": {
-        "mape_pct": 16.74,
-        "median_bias_pct": -8.05,
+        "mape_pct": 11.61,
+        "median_bias_pct": -4.07,
         "n": 104,
-        "p25_pct": -20.63,
-        "p75_pct": 7.55
+        "p25_pct": -15.64,
+        "p75_pct": 7.38
       },
       "премиум": {
-        "mape_pct": 59.37,
-        "median_bias_pct": -59.37,
+        "mape_pct": 68.92,
+        "median_bias_pct": -68.92,
         "n": 1,
-        "p25_pct": -59.37,
-        "p75_pct": -59.37
+        "p25_pct": -68.92,
+        "p75_pct": -68.92
       },
       "эконом": {
-        "mape_pct": 18.01,
-        "median_bias_pct": 17.17,
+        "mape_pct": 15.17,
+        "median_bias_pct": 4.28,
         "n": 120,
-        "p25_pct": 1.73,
-        "p75_pct": 46.96
+        "p25_pct": -6.59,
+        "p75_pct": 26.09
       },
       "элит": {
-        "mape_pct": 38.62,
-        "median_bias_pct": -38.62,
+        "mape_pct": 33.2,
+        "median_bias_pct": -33.2,
         "n": 6,
-        "p25_pct": -47.98,
-        "p75_pct": -33.18
+        "p25_pct": -42.75,
+        "p75_pct": -22.4
       }
     }
   },
@@ -125,9 +125,9 @@
   },
   "range_coverage": {
     "overall": {
-      "coverage_pct": 80.14,
+      "coverage_pct": 81.95,
       "n": 277,
-      "n_covered": 222
+      "n_covered": 227
     },
     "per_confidence": {
       "high": {
@@ -136,9 +136,9 @@
         "n_covered": 0
       },
       "low": {
-        "coverage_pct": 80.0,
+        "coverage_pct": 81.82,
         "n": 275,
-        "n_covered": 220
+        "n_covered": 225
       },
       "medium": {
         "coverage_pct": 100.0,

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_781_quality_gate.py

@@ -325,7 +325,9 @@ def test_753_dedup_hash_source_id_takes_priority_over_url() -> None:
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
-def test_773_expected_sold_positive_on_anchor_only_path() -> None:
+def test_773_expected_sold_positive_on_anchor_only_path(
+    monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
+) -> None:
     """#773 quality-gate: anchor-only path (radius_analogs=[]) with ratio present
     -> expected_sold_price_rub > 0 (not NULL).
 
@@ -334,6 +336,11 @@ def test_773_expected_sold_positive_on_anchor_only_path() -> None:
     produced a valid median_price. The fix changed the guard to `and median_price > 0`.
     Refs: PR #784 / commit ec84637.
     """
+    # #2002: asserts expected_sold == headline × ratio; hold the orthogonal hedonic
+    # year+area correction OFF (OFF ⇒ exact legacy expected_sold).
+    from app.core.config import settings as _settings
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(_settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
     est = _run_qa_estimate(
         anchor_comps=_SB_COMPS_QG,
         anchor_tier="A",

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_backtest_fixture_roundtrip.py

@@ -227,12 +227,17 @@ def test_replay_fixture_segments_span_multiple_bands() -> None:
     assert len(non_empty) >= 3
 
 
-def test_replay_is_arg_insensitive_order_based() -> None:
+def test_replay_is_arg_insensitive_order_based(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
     # Order-based (FIFO) replay returns the recorded ratio REGARDLESS of the arg
     # value the spine actually computes — so a recorded arg that can never equal
     # the live median (999_999.0) still replays cleanly. This is the cross-platform
     # robustness contract: a Linux-captured fixture must replay off-Linux even when
     # libm last-ulp jitter shifts the computed median_ppm2 by an ulp.
+    # #2002: this asserts the recorded ratio drives the result (bias -5%). Hold the
+    # orthogonal hedonic correction OFF so expected_sold stays exactly headline × ratio.
+    from app.core.config import settings
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
     fixture = _build_fixture()
     fixture["deals"][0]["ratio_calls"] = [[999_999.0, [0.95, "per_rooms_all"]]]
     metrics = bt.replay_fixture(fixture)

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_estimator_expected_sold.py

@@ -26,6 +26,7 @@ from typing import Any
 from unittest.mock import AsyncMock, MagicMock, patch
 
 import anyio
+import pytest
 
 # Settings requires DATABASE_URL at init time. Set dummy DSN before any app import.
 os.environ.setdefault("DATABASE_URL", "postgresql+psycopg://test:test@localhost/test_db")
@@ -218,8 +219,13 @@ def _run_estimate(ratio_tuple: tuple[float | None, str | None]):
     return anyio.run(_run)
 
 
-def test_expected_sold_applied_when_ratio_present() -> None:
+def test_expected_sold_applied_when_ratio_present(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
     """ratio present → expected_sold_* ≈ asking × ratio; headline UNCHANGED."""
+    # #2002: asserts the ratio mechanism (expected_sold == asking × ratio). Hold the
+    # orthogonal hedonic year+area correction OFF (OFF ⇒ exact legacy expected_sold).
+    from app.services import estimator as _est
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(_est.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
     ratio = 0.74
     est = _run_estimate((ratio, "per_rooms"))
 
@@ -341,9 +347,15 @@ def _run_estimate_anchor_only(
     return anyio.run(_run)
 
 
-def test_expected_sold_fires_on_anchor_only_no_radius_comps() -> None:
+def test_expected_sold_fires_on_anchor_only_no_radius_comps(
+    monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
+) -> None:
     """#773: listings_clean=[], anchor sets median_price>0, ratio present
     → expected_sold_price > 0 (old guard `and listings_clean` blocked this)."""
+    # #2002: asserts expected_sold == headline × ratio; hold hedonic correction OFF.
+    from app.services import estimator as _est
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(_est.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
     ratio = 0.82
     est = _run_estimate_anchor_only((ratio, "per_rooms"))
 

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_estimator_expected_sold_clamp.py

@@ -86,6 +86,9 @@ def _run_estimate(
     async def _run() -> Any:
         with (
             patch("app.core.config.settings.estimate_expected_sold_le_asking", new=clamp_enabled),
+            # #2002: these tests assert the clamp/ratio math exactly. Hold the
+            # orthogonal hedonic year+area correction OFF (OFF ⇒ legacy expected_sold).
+            patch("app.core.config.settings.estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", new=False),
             patch("app.services.estimator.geocode", new=AsyncMock(return_value=_make_geo())),
             patch("app.services.estimator.dadata_clean_address", new=AsyncMock(return_value=None)),
             patch("app.services.estimator.match_house_readonly", return_value=None),

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_estimator_hedonic.py

@@ -0,0 +1,191 @@
+"""Focused hedonic year+area correction tests (#2002).
+
+Exercises the multiplicative hedonic factor on the expected_sold POINT directly
+via ``_price_from_inputs`` (hermetic — no DB, no network). Verifies:
+  * the factor magnitude vs the hedonic-OFF baseline (mid case);
+  * both clamp boundaries (≤ factor_min via huge area, ≥ factor_max via small+new);
+  * the neutral year term when ``target_year`` is None (≡ year 2000);
+  * the le_asking invariant — the corrected expected_sold never exceeds the asking
+    headline (median) when ``estimate_expected_sold_le_asking`` is on.
+
+NOTE: importing app.services.estimator pulls app.core.config.Settings which
+requires DATABASE_URL. Set it BEFORE importing app modules.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import math
+import os
+
+import pytest
+
+os.environ.setdefault("DATABASE_URL", "postgresql+psycopg://test:test@localhost:5432/test")
+
+from app.services import estimator
+from app.services.geocoder import GeocodeResult
+
+# ── helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+def _geo() -> GeocodeResult:
+    return GeocodeResult(
+        lat=56.838,
+        lon=60.597,
+        full_address="ул. Тестовая, 1",
+        provider="nominatim",
+        confidence="approximate",
+    )
+
+
+def _lots(ppm2: float, n: int = 7) -> list[dict]:
+    """n unique-address lots all at the same ₽/m² → median_ppm2 == ppm2."""
+    return [
+        {"price_per_m2": ppm2, "address": f"ул. Тестовая, {i + 1}", "source": "avito"}
+        for i in range(n)
+    ]
+
+
+def _price(
+    *,
+    area_m2: float,
+    target_year: int | None,
+    ratio: float,
+    ppm2: float = 100_000.0,
+) -> estimator.PricingResult:
+    """Pure radius-only spine call (no anchor / dkp / imv) with a forced ratio."""
+
+    def ratio_resolver(appm2: float | None) -> tuple[float | None, str | None]:
+        return ratio, "per_rooms"
+
+    return estimator._price_from_inputs(
+        listings=_lots(ppm2),
+        area_m2=area_m2,
+        rooms=2,
+        repair_state=None,
+        floor=5,
+        total_floors=10,
+        target_year=target_year,
+        analog_tier="W",
+        fallback_used=False,
+        area_widened=False,
+        anchor_comps=[],
+        anchor_tier_fetched=None,
+        dkp_raw=None,
+        imv_anchor=None,
+        imv_eval=None,
+        yandex_val_present=False,
+        cian_val_present=False,
+        ratio_resolver=ratio_resolver,
+        quarter_index_lookup=lambda q: None,
+        quarter_indexes_lookup=lambda qs: {},
+        target_house_cadnum=None,
+        dadata_coarse=False,
+        geo=_geo(),
+        dadata_qc_geo=None,
+    )
+
+
+def _expected_factor(area_m2: float, target_year: int | None) -> float:
+    """Reproduce the production factor from the live settings (no hard-coding)."""
+    s = estimator.settings
+    yr = ((target_year - 2000) / 20.0) if target_year else 0.0
+    raw = math.exp(
+        s.estimate_hedonic_b0
+        + s.estimate_hedonic_year_coef * yr
+        + s.estimate_hedonic_larea_coef * math.log(area_m2)
+    )
+    return max(s.estimate_hedonic_factor_min, min(s.estimate_hedonic_factor_max, raw))
+
+
+# ── tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+def test_mid_case_shifts_by_expected_factor(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
+    """year≈2010, area≈50 → expected_sold shifts by the hedonic factor vs OFF."""
+    # OFF baseline (exact legacy expected_sold).
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
+    off = _price(area_m2=50.0, target_year=2010, ratio=0.85)
+    # ON.
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", True)
+    on = _price(area_m2=50.0, target_year=2010, ratio=0.85)
+
+    factor = _expected_factor(50.0, 2010)
+    # 2010 + 50 m² → mild uplift, strictly inside the clamp band.
+    assert 1.0 < factor < estimator.settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_max
+    assert off.expected_sold_price is not None and on.expected_sold_price is not None
+    # ratio 0.85 × factor < 1.0 → le_asking re-clamp is a no-op here (no confound).
+    assert on.expected_sold_price == round(off.expected_sold_price * factor)
+    assert on.expected_sold_per_m2 == round(off.expected_sold_per_m2 * factor)
+
+
+def test_factor_clamps_to_min_for_huge_area(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
+    """Very large area → raw factor < factor_min → clamped to the floor."""
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
+    off = _price(area_m2=10_000.0, target_year=None, ratio=0.85)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", True)
+    on = _price(area_m2=10_000.0, target_year=None, ratio=0.85)
+
+    factor = _expected_factor(10_000.0, None)
+    assert factor == estimator.settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_min
+    assert off.expected_sold_price is not None and on.expected_sold_price is not None
+    assert on.expected_sold_price == round(
+        off.expected_sold_price * estimator.settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_min
+    )
+
+
+def test_factor_clamps_to_max_for_small_new_lot(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
+    """Small area + new year → raw factor > factor_max → clamped to the ceiling.
+
+    le_asking is held OFF so the raw ceiling factor is observable on the point
+    (otherwise the re-clamp would cap it at the asking headline).
+    """
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_expected_sold_le_asking", False)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
+    off = _price(area_m2=15.0, target_year=2025, ratio=0.85)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", True)
+    on = _price(area_m2=15.0, target_year=2025, ratio=0.85)
+
+    factor = _expected_factor(15.0, 2025)
+    assert factor == estimator.settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_max
+    assert off.expected_sold_price is not None and on.expected_sold_price is not None
+    assert on.expected_sold_price == round(
+        off.expected_sold_price * estimator.settings.estimate_hedonic_factor_max
+    )
+
+
+def test_target_year_none_is_neutral(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
+    """target_year=None → year term is 0 → identical to year 2000 (intercept+area)."""
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", True)
+    none_year = _price(area_m2=50.0, target_year=None, ratio=0.85)
+    year_2000 = _price(area_m2=50.0, target_year=2000, ratio=0.85)
+
+    assert none_year.expected_sold_price == year_2000.expected_sold_price
+    assert none_year.expected_sold_per_m2 == year_2000.expected_sold_per_m2
+    assert _expected_factor(50.0, None) == _expected_factor(50.0, 2000)
+
+
+def test_le_asking_invariant_holds_under_hedonic(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
+    """With le_asking on, the hedonic-corrected expected_sold never exceeds asking."""
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", True)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_expected_sold_le_asking", True)
+    # small area + new year → factor 1.30; ratio 0.95 → 0.95×1.30 ≈ 1.235 > 1 →
+    # uncorrected the point would exceed the asking headline; the re-clamp must bind.
+    res = _price(area_m2=15.0, target_year=2025, ratio=0.95)
+
+    assert res.expected_sold_price is not None
+    assert res.expected_sold_price <= res.median_price
+    assert res.expected_sold_per_m2 is not None
+    assert res.expected_sold_per_m2 <= res.median_ppm2
+    # The clamp binds exactly at the asking headline (proves it actually fired).
+    assert res.expected_sold_price == res.median_price
+
+
+def test_le_asking_off_allows_hedonic_above_asking(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
+    """Control: with le_asking OFF, the hedonic uplift may exceed asking (no clamp)."""
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", True)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_expected_sold_le_asking", False)
+    res = _price(area_m2=15.0, target_year=2025, ratio=0.95)
+
+    assert res.expected_sold_price is not None
+    # 0.95 × 1.30 ≈ 1.235 → point is allowed above the asking headline.
+    assert res.expected_sold_price > res.median_price

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_estimator_imv_blend.py

@@ -362,6 +362,9 @@ def _run_estimate_with_anchor(
 
     async def _run():
         with (
+            # #2002: these tests assert expected_sold == post-blend headline × ratio.
+            # Hold the orthogonal hedonic correction OFF (OFF ⇒ legacy expected_sold).
+            patch("app.core.config.settings.estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", new=False),
             patch("app.services.estimator.geocode", new=AsyncMock(return_value=_make_fake_geo())),
             patch("app.services.estimator.dadata_clean_address", new=AsyncMock(return_value=None)),
             patch("app.services.estimator.match_house_readonly", return_value=None),

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_estimator_price_spine.py

@@ -152,8 +152,11 @@ def _call(
 # ── Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 
-def test_radius_only_median_and_expected_sold() -> None:
+def test_radius_only_median_and_expected_sold(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
     """Pure radius path: 7 uniform lots → correct median, n_analogs, expected_sold."""
+    # #2002: this asserts the ratio mechanism (expected_sold == headline × ratio).
+    # Hold the orthogonal hedonic correction OFF (OFF ⇒ exact legacy expected_sold).
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
     pr = _call(listings=_lots(100_000, n=7), ratio=0.95)
 
     assert pr.median_price == int(100_000 * 50.0)  # 5_000_000
@@ -365,8 +368,13 @@ def test_corridor_soft_clamp_headline_above_cap() -> None:
     assert pr.dkp_corridor.high_ppm2 == 150_000
 
 
-def test_expected_sold_from_ratio_and_none_when_ratio_none() -> None:
+def test_expected_sold_from_ratio_and_none_when_ratio_none(
+    monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
+) -> None:
     """expected_sold = headline × ratio; when ratio is None, all expected_sold fields None."""
+    # #2002: ratio-mechanism test — hold the orthogonal hedonic correction OFF
+    # so expected_sold == headline × ratio exactly (OFF ⇒ legacy behavior).
+    monkeypatch.setattr(estimator.settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False)
     # Case A: ratio=0.90 → expected_sold fields filled.
     pr_ratio = _call(listings=_lots(100_000, n=5), ratio=0.90)
     assert pr_ratio.asking_to_sold_ratio == 0.90

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_same_building_anchor.py

@@ -556,10 +556,15 @@ def test_estimate_expected_sold_distinct_after_anchor() -> None:
     """(f) При сработавшем якоре headline = ASKING (anchor_ppm2, pre-haircut), а
     expected_sold = headline × per-rooms ratio → DISTINCT, строго ниже median.
     Single asking→sold механизм (ratio); band-haircut больше не в headline."""
+    # #2002: asserts expected_sold == post-anchor headline × ratio. Hold the
+    # orthogonal hedonic year+area correction OFF (OFF ⇒ legacy expected_sold).
+    from app.core.config import settings
+
     ratio = 0.92
-    est = _run_estimate(
-        anchor_comps=_SB_COMPS_PREMIUM, anchor_tier="A", ratio_tuple=(ratio, "per_rooms")
-    )
+    with patch.object(settings, "estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled", False):
+        est = _run_estimate(
+            anchor_comps=_SB_COMPS_PREMIUM, anchor_tier="A", ratio_tuple=(ratio, "per_rooms")
+        )
     # expected_sold выведен из POST-anchor headline × ratio (не равен headline).
     # per_m2 берётся от внутренней float-медианы (схема отдаёт int(median_ppm2)),
     # поэтому сравниваем с допуском ±1 на округление float→int.
@@ -567,7 +572,6 @@ def test_estimate_expected_sold_distinct_after_anchor() -> None:
     assert abs(est.expected_sold_per_m2 - round(est.median_price_per_m2 * ratio)) <= 1
     # #1966: expected_sold range — калиброванный ~80% PI вокруг точки (point × [p10,p90]
     # sold/expected_sold), не asking-IQR × ratio.
-    from app.core.config import settings
 
     assert est.expected_sold_range_high_rub == round(
         est.expected_sold_price_rub * settings.estimate_pi_high_mult