Review found the hedonic factor (≤1.30) was applied AFTER the
estimate_expected_sold_le_asking clamp, so expected_sold could exceed the
asking headline (median) by up to ~26% for new/small lots — an overpay risk
that violated the default-True le_asking invariant.
Fix: re-assert le_asking right after the hedonic block and before the
calibrated-PI range block. Final order: ratio clamp -> hedonic factor ->
le_asking re-clamp -> calibrated PI range (range still wraps the clamped
point). round(median_ppm2) keeps expected_sold_per_m2 an int.
The re-clamp does NOT materially erode the новостройка/бизнес benefit
(бизнес bias -9.15->-10.19, MAPE held 12.87) and actually improves overall
expected_sold MAPE on the frozen fixture (14.24->13.23) by capping
over-corrections that overshot actual sold prices.
Adds tests/test_estimator_hedonic.py (hermetic, no DB): factor magnitude vs
OFF, both clamp boundaries, neutral year term for target_year=None, and the
le_asking invariant under hedonic ON. Baseline regenerated; gate green.
Also clarifies the config comment: the quoted held-out fit metrics
(18.5->16.1 etc., n=2366) are distinct from the 277-deal backtest fixture
(18.63->13.23).
Held-out fit (n=2366 prod deals, 2026-06-27) of
log(actual_sold/expected_sold) ~ year + ln(area) gives a multiplicative
factor that corrects systematic mis-estimation by building era + unit size
(underestimates newer buildings, mis-handles large units).
factor = exp(b0 + b_year*(year-2000)/20 + b_larea*ln(area)), clamped
[0.75, 1.30]; applied to the expected_sold point BEFORE the calibrated PI
range block (so the range follows the corrected point). Headline/asking is
untouched. Gated behind estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled (OFF => exact
old behavior, proven by the regression gate).
Frozen baseline regenerated: overall expected_sold MAPE 18.63->14.24;
per-segment median_bias_pct moves toward 0 (бизнес -21.5->-9.2,
комфорт -8.0->-3.6, эконом 17.2->4.3); элит mildly better, no harm.
Tests that assert the exact ratio relation (expected_sold == headline x
ratio) hold the orthogonal hedonic layer OFF.
