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fix(forecasting): correct _geo_weight unknown floor so far projects rank low (#1633) #1685

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lekss361 merged 1 commit from fix/geo-weight-floor-1633 into main 2026-06-17 17:55:18 +00:00
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Author SHA1 Message Date
bot-backend
e4975c486f fix(forecasting): correct _geo_weight decay/floor so far projects get low weight (#1633)
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_GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN was 0.1, which equals exp(−6.9/3)≈0.10 (weight of a
confirmed-far project at ~6.9 km). Projects beyond that distance got a
weight *below* 0.1, meaning unknown-coordinate projects outweighed
confirmed-far ones — an inversion of the documented intent.

Lowered to 0.05 (≈ exp(−3) = exp(−9 km / scale)), restoring the correct
hierarchy: confirmed-close > confirmed-far > unknown. Updated TestGeoWeight
(hardcoded 0.1 expectation) and TestCannibalizationTrueMode (overlap ×
floor comment/value) accordingly. Added two new assertions in TestGeoWeight
that enforce the hierarchy monotonically and verify unknown < exp(−6.9/3).
 2026-06-17 20:44:00 +03:00