fix(forecasting): correct _geo_weight unknown floor so far projects rank low (#1633) #1685

Merged

lekss361 merged 1 commit from fix/geo-weight-floor-1633 into main

2026-06-17 17:55:18 +00:00

lekss361 commented

2026-06-17 17:45:46 +00:00

Owner

Проблема (#1633, P4)

special_indices.py: _GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN=0.1 = exp(-6.9/3) → проект с неизвестными координатами весил больше подтверждённо-далёкого (10 км → 0.036). Инверсия намерения.

Решение

_GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN=0.05 (≈exp(-9/3), ~9 км = периферия ЕКБ). Иерархия: близкий(0.72@1км) > unknown(0.05) > далёкий(0.036@10км); unknown теперь ниже crossover 6.9 км.

Verify

ruff clean; pytest → 219 passed (+2 monotonicity-теста).

Closes #1633

## Проблема (#1633, P4) `special_indices.py`: `_GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN=0.1` = `exp(-6.9/3)` → проект с неизвестными координатами весил больше подтверждённо-далёкого (10 км → 0.036). Инверсия намерения. ## Решение `_GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN=0.05` (≈`exp(-9/3)`, ~9 км = периферия ЕКБ). Иерархия: близкий(0.72@1км) > unknown(0.05) > далёкий(0.036@10км); unknown теперь ниже crossover 6.9 км. ## Verify `ruff` clean; `pytest` → **219 passed** (+2 monotonicity-теста). Closes #1633

lekss361 added 1 commit 2026-06-17 17:45:47 +00:00

fix(forecasting): correct _geo_weight decay/floor so far projects get low weight (#1633 )

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e4975c486f

_GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN was 0.1, which equals exp(−6.9/3)≈0.10 (weight of a
confirmed-far project at ~6.9 km). Projects beyond that distance got a
weight *below* 0.1, meaning unknown-coordinate projects outweighed
confirmed-far ones — an inversion of the documented intent.

Lowered to 0.05 (≈ exp(−3) = exp(−9 km / scale)), restoring the correct
hierarchy: confirmed-close > confirmed-far > unknown. Updated TestGeoWeight
(hardcoded 0.1 expectation) and TestCannibalizationTrueMode (overlap ×
floor comment/value) accordingly. Added two new assertions in TestGeoWeight
that enforce the hierarchy monotonically and verify unknown < exp(−6.9/3).