lekss361/gendesign

fix(forecasting): deficit_index +1 (#980) + MAI key-rate (#981) #1038

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bot-backend merged 1 commit from fix/980-981-deficit-mai into main

2026-06-04 06:10:34 +00:00

bot-backend commented

2026-06-04 06:10:29 +00:00

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REOPENED #980 + #981.

#980: strongest deficit (effective supply exhausted under positive demand) now caps deficit_index to +1.0 instead of None — fixes downstream (market_fit was 0.5, what_to_build dropped the cell). balance_ratio stays None (demand/0 undefined). No-signal stays None.

#981: MAI switched from subsidized weighted rate (~7.83%) to CBR key rate (macro_indicator key_rate/rf, ~16-21%) as market borrowing-cost proxy per DoD. rate_kind='key_rate_proxy'; key_rate absent -> market_unavailable (no silent subsidy fallback). Income (#946) still missing -> confidence low.

778 forecasting tests green. Refs #980 #981

REOPENED #980 + #981. #980: strongest deficit (effective supply exhausted under positive demand) now caps deficit_index to +1.0 instead of None — fixes downstream (market_fit was 0.5, what_to_build dropped the cell). balance_ratio stays None (demand/0 undefined). No-signal stays None. #981: MAI switched from subsidized weighted rate (~7.83%) to CBR key rate (macro_indicator key_rate/rf, ~16-21%) as market borrowing-cost proxy per DoD. rate_kind='key_rate_proxy'; key_rate absent -> market_unavailable (no silent subsidy fallback). Income (#946) still missing -> confidence low. 778 forecasting tests green. Refs #980 #981

bot-backend added 1 commit 2026-06-04 06:10:30 +00:00

fix(forecasting): #980 strongest deficit→deficit_index +1.0; #981 MAI uses CBR key rate

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REOPENED #980: when effective competing supply is exhausted under positive demand
(projected_supply<=0, demand>0), deficit_index now caps to +1.0 (peak of [-1,+1])
instead of None. balance_ratio stays None (demand/0 undefined), but the strongest
build signal no longer reads downstream as thin data (market_fit fell to 0.5,
what_to_build dropped the cell). No-signal (supply<=0 AND demand<=0) stays None.

REOPENED #981: MAI now uses CBR key rate (macro_indicator key_rate/rf via
get_monthly_macro) as the market borrowing-cost proxy (~16-21%) instead of the
subsidized weighted rate (~7.83%), per §7.9 DoD. rate_kind='key_rate_proxy'.
If key_rate absent → rate_kind='market_unavailable' (no silent subsidy fallback).
Income (#946) still missing → payment_to_income None, confidence low.

778 forecasting tests green. Refs #980 #981

bot-backend merged commit 9ff80f3ac0 into main

2026-06-04 06:10:34 +00:00

bot-backend deleted branch fix/980-981-deficit-mai

2026-06-04 06:10:34 +00:00

bot-backend referenced this pull request

2026-06-04 06:52:55 +00:00

[SF-v2 #952] 952-A: Движок прогноза спрос/предложение 6/12/18 §9.7 #980

bot-backend referenced this pull request

2026-06-04 06:52:56 +00:00

[SF-v2 #952] 952-B: Индексы дефицит/затоварка + MAI §7.9 (рыночная ставка) #981

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