13 commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
bot-backend	ed4335b932	feat(tradein/estimator): calibrated 80% prediction interval for expected_sold range (#1966) ... The expected_sold_range_low/high were derived from the analog asking-IQR (× asking→sold ratio): only ~55% of actual sold prices fell inside the stated range — a 50%-ish interval mislabeled as the estimate's range. Replace with a calibrated band around the expected_sold POINT, gated behind estimate_calibrated_pi_enabled (default ON): range_low = expected_sold_price × 0.649 (empirical p10 of sold/expected_sold) range_high = expected_sold_price × 1.392 (empirical p90, n=2366 prod deals) This is a genuine ~80% prediction interval (verified 80.0% coverage on the 2366-deal sample). Headline asking range_low/high (market-asking IQR) untouched. Frozen backtest baseline regenerated: range_coverage.overall 55.23 → 80.14 (n_covered 153 → 222); expected_sold POINT mape/bias and headline unchanged (only the band moved). Tests asserting the old asking-IQR × ratio band updated to the calibrated band (documented behavior change).	2026-06-27 16:53:14 +03:00
bot-backend	ec82742456	feat(tradein): same-building anchor safe-guard (#755) ... CLIENT-VISIBLE pricing (killer-factor, demo 2026-06-01). The same-building anchor replaced headline median/range/confidence with an over-confident premium on as few as 2 same-building asking comps. Human-chosen (Anton) 3-part safe-guard, all implemented: 1. min_comps 2 -> 4: anchor fires only with >=4 same-building comps. 2. confidence cap: at <5 anchor comps, confidence cannot be 'high' -> medium. 3. MAD-clip: drop price_per_m2 outliers among anchor comps before aggregation (k=estimate_sb_mad_k=3.5); if <min_comps survive, anchor does NOT fire (fallback to radius-median). Guards against price typos inflating anchor. Anchor still REPLACES the headline (uplift-no-replace variant NOT chosen). quarter-index/radius-tier/asking-sold untouched. 8 new unit tests; 61 anchor tests pass, ruff clean. MERGE-GATE (client-visible, like #764/#858): do NOT merge without a green backtest #763 (held-out MAPE <= 18.7% + canonical A/B Малышева 125 / Заводская 44а). Backtest needs live DB — pre-merge human/qa step. Refs #755, #694	2026-05-31 12:19:50 +03:00
bot-backend	34a13d71c3	fix(tradein): sync n_analogs to anchor count when anchor drives headline (#695) (#739) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 15:25:35 +00:00
bot-backend	2b3eb0b23d	fix(tradein): confidence_explanation no longer contradicts counters (#695) (#738) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 15:10:31 +00:00
bot-backend	a79cf7d5e0	fix(tradein): coarse-geo downgrade no longer shielded by Tier C anchor (#693) (#720) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 12:34:11 +00:00
bot-backend	0e2bba78b7	fix(tradein): coarse-geo downgrade works without DaData on prod (#693) (#718) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 12:08:56 +00:00
bot-backend	961a3caf2b	fix(tradein): surface same-building comps as analogs when anchor fires (#694) (#708) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 09:21:20 +00:00
bot-backend	9d94beae4f	fix(tradein): flag coarse-geo estimates as low-confidence (#693) (#707) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 08:58:23 +00:00
bot-backend	f04728297b	fix(tradein): run same-building anchor without radius analogs (#691) (#704) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 08:34:24 +00:00
bot-backend	6fac54642a	fix(tradein): distinct asking median vs expected-sold price (no double-discount) (#682) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 06:35:46 +00:00
bot-backend	3361e434d4	feat(tradein): refine same-building anchor for within-building heterogeneity (#681) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-30 05:49:46 +00:00
bot-backend	b5c26d2723	fix(tradein): harden same-building anchor address normalizer for prod formats (#677) (#679) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-29 22:21:29 +00:00
bot-backend	03a3296332	feat(tradein): same-building anchor estimator (#651/#652 v2) behind flag (#677) ... Co-authored-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local> Co-committed-by: bot-backend <bot-backend@gendsgn.local>	2026-05-29 21:01:21 +00:00