gendesign/backend/app/services/forecasting
Light1YT 347203dfda
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feat(forecasting): §25.3 TRUE own-portfolio cannibalization overlap (#1169 PR2)
Upgrade the §25.3 cannibalization index from a same-class-competitor proxy to
true own-portfolio overlap: score the recommended candidate segment against the
developer's own portfolio (get_own_portfolio, #1169 PR1) across axes —
audience/class (ordinal distance), price ₽/м² (interval overlap), unit-mix
(L1 similarity), timing (half-life decay) — geo-weighted by haversine proximity
to the parcel, aggregated by geo-weighted soft-max (the strongest nearby
cannibalizer dominates, not a diluting mean). Empty portfolio -> labelled proxy
fallback, confidence forced low, never presented as the true index.

Pure scoring fns unit-tested without DB; None-not-0 on missing axes; thin/
only-current portfolio -> low confidence + §26 note; deterministic (sorted
tie-breaks, no RNG). class+price+geo active now; unit-mix+timing plumbed via
optional params for a follow-up that wires them from the orchestrator horizon.
ruff + mypy clean; 151 special-index tests pass (964 forecasting dir, no regr).

Refs #1169
2026-06-08 16:47:18 +05:00
..
__init__.py feat(forecasting): §13 report assembler (#988, 955-A2) (#1021) 2026-06-03 08:51:23 +00:00
affordability.py fix(affordability): calibrate key_rate->market mortgage spread to 4.5pp 2026-06-04 17:21:29 +05:00
confidence_engine.py feat(forecasting): §15 confidence engine v2 (#990, 955-A4) (#1020) 2026-06-03 08:41:07 +00:00
demand_normalization.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
demand_supply_forecast.py feat(forecasting): add months-of-inventory (MOI) to §9.8 demand-supply forecast 2026-06-05 07:36:59 +05:00
macro_coefficient.py feat(macro): CBR inflation (ИПЦ YoY) -> macro_indicator + activate §9.5 channel (#946) 2026-06-08 11:41:14 +05:00
macro_series.py feat(macro): CBR inflation (ИПЦ YoY) -> macro_indicator + activate §9.5 channel (#946) 2026-06-08 11:41:14 +05:00
normalize.py feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) 2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
orchestrator.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
product_scoring.py feat(forecasting): wire Almon-ADL rate estimator into §9.6 consumers (#978) 2026-06-04 10:33:31 +00:00
rate_sensitivity.py feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) 2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
recommendation.py fix(forecasting): honest USP gate (di>0) + unit-explicit coverage fraction 2026-06-04 13:25:25 +05:00
regression.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
report.py feat(forecasting): §13 SiteFinderReport object (#987, 955-A1) (#1019) 2026-06-03 08:33:01 +00:00
report_assembler.py feat(forecasting): add months-of-inventory (MOI) to §9.8 demand-supply forecast 2026-06-05 07:36:59 +05:00
sales_series.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
scenarios.py feat(forecasting): §11 macro-scenarios (#984, 954-A) (#1016) 2026-06-03 07:59:22 +00:00
special_indices.py feat(forecasting): §25.3 TRUE own-portfolio cannibalization overlap (#1169 PR2) 2026-06-08 16:47:18 +05:00
what_to_build.py feat(forecasting): what-to-build ranker + MAI proxy (#981, 952-B) (#1013) 2026-06-03 07:07:17 +00:00