gendesign/backend/app/services/forecasting
Light1YT 25e21c2bff
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feat(macro): CBR inflation (ИПЦ YoY) -> macro_indicator + activate §9.5 channel (#946)
fedstat ИПЦ is reCAPTCHA-blocked; CBR publishes inflation openly. Add
fetch_inflation + parse_inflation_xlsx (CBR UniDbQuery DownloadExcel/132934,
monthly % г/г, region=rf, source=cbr) to cbr_macro.py; upsert
indicator_type=inflation_yoy via the existing cbr_macro_sync task (per-series
guard, SAVEPOINT-per-row, CAST not ::, ON CONFLICT on the PK).

Surface inflation_yoy in MonthlyMacro (frozen, carry-forward) and ACTIVATE the
reserved §9.5 inflation channel (macro_coefficient f_inflation: level-vs-4%-target
nudge, non-positive to avoid double-counting f_rate, excluded from
_RATE_DRIVEN_FACTORS). Channel was DEGRADED (no data) -> now BACKED + consumed;
_CONF_HIGH_MIN_BACKED 4->5. Deterministic (§16/§26); renorm claims the reserved
0.08 slice as designed. Live-verified (2026-04 5.58%); 194 macro + 902 forecasting
tests green. No migration, no new deps.

Refs #946.
2026-06-08 11:41:14 +05:00
..
__init__.py feat(forecasting): §13 report assembler (#988, 955-A2) (#1021) 2026-06-03 08:51:23 +00:00
affordability.py fix(affordability): calibrate key_rate->market mortgage spread to 4.5pp 2026-06-04 17:21:29 +05:00
confidence_engine.py feat(forecasting): §15 confidence engine v2 (#990, 955-A4) (#1020) 2026-06-03 08:41:07 +00:00
demand_normalization.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
demand_supply_forecast.py feat(forecasting): add months-of-inventory (MOI) to §9.8 demand-supply forecast 2026-06-05 07:36:59 +05:00
macro_coefficient.py feat(macro): CBR inflation (ИПЦ YoY) -> macro_indicator + activate §9.5 channel (#946) 2026-06-08 11:41:14 +05:00
macro_series.py feat(macro): CBR inflation (ИПЦ YoY) -> macro_indicator + activate §9.5 channel (#946) 2026-06-08 11:41:14 +05:00
normalize.py feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) 2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
orchestrator.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
product_scoring.py feat(forecasting): wire Almon-ADL rate estimator into §9.6 consumers (#978) 2026-06-04 10:33:31 +00:00
rate_sensitivity.py feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) 2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
recommendation.py fix(forecasting): honest USP gate (di>0) + unit-explicit coverage fraction 2026-06-04 13:25:25 +05:00
regression.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
report.py feat(forecasting): §13 SiteFinderReport object (#987, 955-A1) (#1019) 2026-06-03 08:33:01 +00:00
report_assembler.py feat(forecasting): add months-of-inventory (MOI) to §9.8 demand-supply forecast 2026-06-05 07:36:59 +05:00
sales_series.py perf(forecast): per-request memoization cache for §22 cold build (#1129) 2026-06-08 05:26:27 +00:00
scenarios.py feat(forecasting): §11 macro-scenarios (#984, 954-A) (#1016) 2026-06-03 07:59:22 +00:00
special_indices.py feat(forecasting): §25 six special indices (#986, 954-C) (#1018) 2026-06-03 08:24:08 +00:00
what_to_build.py feat(forecasting): what-to-build ranker + MAI proxy (#981, 952-B) (#1013) 2026-06-03 07:07:17 +00:00