gendesign/backend/app/services/forecasting
Light1YT 4844847cae
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fix(affordability): calibrate key_rate->market mortgage spread to 4.5pp
_KEY_RATE_MARKET_SPREAD_PP was a 0.0 placeholder, so §7.9 affordability payments
used the bare CBR key_rate (~14.5%), understating borrower cost and OVERSTATING
affordability. Calibrate to 4.5pp from the prod anchor (macro_indicator
mortgage_rate_primary_domrf 19.125% @ 2026-04-19 vs key_rate ~14.5% -> observed
~4.6pp, rounded conservatively; inside the typical RF 3-5pp band), so
rate_used = key_rate + 4.5 ~= 19% matches the directly-observed market primary
mortgage rate. Makes affordability LESS optimistic / more accurate. Docs + tests
updated to the symbolic spread (new regression anchor pins spread==4.5 and
key_rate 14.5 -> ~19.0); rate_kind/graceful-fallback semantics unchanged.
Forecasting suite 841 passed; ruff clean.
2026-06-04 17:21:29 +05:00
..
__init__.py feat(forecasting): §13 report assembler (#988, 955-A2) (#1021) 2026-06-03 08:51:23 +00:00
affordability.py fix(affordability): calibrate key_rate->market mortgage spread to 4.5pp 2026-06-04 17:21:29 +05:00
confidence_engine.py feat(forecasting): §15 confidence engine v2 (#990, 955-A4) (#1020) 2026-06-03 08:41:07 +00:00
demand_normalization.py feat(forecasting): wire Almon-ADL rate estimator into §9.6 consumers (#978) 2026-06-04 10:33:31 +00:00
demand_supply_forecast.py feat(forecasting): wire Almon-ADL rate estimator into §9.6 consumers (#978) 2026-06-04 10:33:31 +00:00
macro_coefficient.py feat(forecasting): §9.5 macro coefficient (#951e, advisory) (#1010) 2026-06-03 06:20:04 +00:00
macro_series.py feat(forecasting): monthly macro series + regime classifier (#951b) (#1007) 2026-06-03 05:37:43 +00:00
normalize.py feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) 2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
product_scoring.py feat(forecasting): wire Almon-ADL rate estimator into §9.6 consumers (#978) 2026-06-04 10:33:31 +00:00
rate_sensitivity.py feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979) 2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00
recommendation.py fix(forecasting): honest USP gate (di>0) + unit-explicit coverage fraction 2026-06-04 13:25:25 +05:00
regression.py feat(forecasting): wire Almon-ADL rate estimator into §9.6 consumers (#978) 2026-06-04 10:33:31 +00:00
report.py feat(forecasting): §13 SiteFinderReport object (#987, 955-A1) (#1019) 2026-06-03 08:33:01 +00:00
report_assembler.py fix(forecasting): honest USP gate (di>0) + unit-explicit coverage fraction 2026-06-04 13:25:25 +05:00
sales_series.py feat(forecasting): monthly sales series builder for §9.6 (#951c) (#1008) 2026-06-03 05:52:33 +00:00
scenarios.py feat(forecasting): §11 macro-scenarios (#984, 954-A) (#1016) 2026-06-03 07:59:22 +00:00
special_indices.py feat(forecasting): §25 six special indices (#986, 954-C) (#1018) 2026-06-03 08:24:08 +00:00
what_to_build.py feat(forecasting): what-to-build ranker + MAI proxy (#981, 952-B) (#1013) 2026-06-03 07:07:17 +00:00