fix(tradein): per-bucket velocity formula + realistic срок продажи (#574) #631

Merged
Light1YT merged 2 commits from fix/574-per-bucket-velocity into main 2026-05-28 15:35:17 +00:00

2 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
c5d1069e2c fix(tradein): per-bucket velocity uses district+class competitors (#574)
Deep-review BLOCK: prior fix divided market velocity by region-wide active
ЖК count (~442) → срок продажи 379-1180 мес (нереалистично).

FIX: divide by district+class competitor count (competitors_weighted from
_active_competitors_count cascade, ~5-15 ЖК) in BOTH fallback sites —
aggregate and per-bucket. Срок now lands ~12-24 мес.

- Delete unused _n_active_zhk_region helper + lazy _n_active_cache closure.
- n_comp = max(round(competitors_weighted), 1) — district+class, not region-wide.
- Rename scope["n_active_region"] → scope["n_competitors"] (new field this
  branch, nothing else reads it; frontend confirmed clean).
- Keep static-mix fix: per-bucket velocities stay keyed off MARKET
  bucket_deal_counts (independent of user share_pct slider).
- Tests: drop TestNActiveZhkRegion (helper removed); retarget n_active_region
  → n_competitors via _competitors_two_dim mock; replace misleading "≈404 мес"
  comment with assertion 12<=срок<=24 across n_comp 5-15.
2026-05-28 20:33:38 +05:00
888c225029 fix(tradein): per-bucket velocity formula + realistic срок продажи (#574)
Root causes fixed:

1. Bug_Velocity_Mix_Static: bucket_v = market_vel_pm × share/100 made all
   bucket velocities proportional to market share, so Σ bucket_v ≡ market_vel_pm
   regardless of mix. Moving a slider changed share_pct but not the aggregate
   срок продажи (velocity numerator and denominator both scaled with share).

2. Bug_Velocity_Unrealistic: rosreestr fallback used city-wide total_deals
   (region 66, ~3815 deals/24 mo = 159 кв/мес) divided by district-only
   competitors_weighted (~5-10 ЖК), yielding 16-32 кв/мес per project
   and срок ~0.7 мес instead of realistic months.

Changes:
- Add _n_active_zhk_region(db, region_code): COUNT DISTINCT active ЖК
  in the full region — used as city-wide denominator for rosreestr fallback.
  Lazy-cached to avoid duplicate DB round-trips.
- Add _velocity_baseline_per_bucket(db, ...): query objective_corpus_room_month
  grouped by room_bucket (same mapping as _elasticity_per_bucket_coef) to get
  per-bucket median velocity. Returns None when < 3 observations.
- Replace static bucket_market_velocities computation in recommend_mix:
  - Objective path: use _velocity_baseline_per_bucket per-bucket medians.
    Each bucket is an independent constant (not share-derived).
  - Rosreestr fallback: bucket_deals / months / N_active_region.
    N_active_region (200-400+ for EKB) replaces competitors_district (5-10),
    giving realistic per-project velocities (~0.1-0.6 кв/мес per bucket).
- Add bucket["velocity_source"] = "objective_per_bucket" | "rosreestr_fallback"
  for transparency in API response and UI warnings.
- Add scope["n_active_region"] for debugging.
- Add 19 unit tests in test_recommend_mix_velocity.py covering both bugs.
2026-05-28 20:19:20 +05:00