tradein-mvp/backend/app/services/estimator.py

@@ -105,8 +105,11 @@ DEALS_HEADLINE_FALLBACK_MIN_N = 3
 # Rosreestr deals freeze ~2026-01; the sber monthly index re-bases a stale deal's ppm²
 # to the latest available month. Region fixed to Свердловская обл. (tradein MVP = ЕКБ).
 SBER_TIME_ADJUST_REGION = "Свердловская область"
-# Coefficient series preference: hedonic (quality-adjusted, cleanest) → deals (fallback).
-SBER_COEFF_DASHBOARDS = ("residential_real_estate_prices", "real_estate_deals")
+# Coefficient series preference — ТОЛЬКО вторичный рынок (эстиматор оценивает вторичку):
+# real_estate_deals (Вторичный, зарег. сделки) → dinamika-tsen-obyavlenii (Вторичный, asking).
+# #R2-H1: residential_real_estate_prices УБРАН — для обл.66 это 100% «Первичный рынок»
+# (новостройки), даёт направленно ПРОТИВОПОЛОЖНУЮ time-adjust коррекцию для вторички.
+SBER_COEFF_DASHBOARDS = ("real_estate_deals", "dinamika-tsen-obyavlenii")
 SBER_TIME_FACTOR_MIN = 0.7  # clamp guards against bad/sparse index months
 SBER_TIME_FACTOR_MAX = 1.6
 
@@ -1221,6 +1224,9 @@ def _load_sber_index_series(db: Session, *, region: str) -> dict[date, float]:
                         FROM sber_price_index
                         WHERE city = CAST(:region AS text)
                           AND dashboard = CAST(:dash AS text)
+                          -- #R2-H1: только вторичный рынок (эстиматор — вторичка);
+                          -- первичка (новостройки) = направленно неверная коррекция.
+                          AND (segment IS NULL OR segment ILIKE '%вторичн%')
                         ORDER BY period_month
                     """),
                     {"region": region, "dash": dash},
@@ -5729,9 +5735,11 @@ def _compute_confidence(
     (например, MIN_ANALOGS_PER_SOURCE=5 + same-building bias).
 
     high   — unique_addr ≥ 7 AND IQR/median < 0.15
-    medium — unique_addr ≥ 4 OR (unique_addr ≥ 2 AND IQR/median < 0.25)
+    medium — (unique_addr ≥ 4 AND IQR/median < 0.35) OR (unique_addr ≥ 2 AND IQR/median < 0.25)
     low    — иначе
 
+    #R2-H2: dispersion-ceiling на medium (0.35) + force-low при fallback-расширении
+    с разбросом > 0.30 — badge не должен противоречить собственному объяснению.
     Downgrade на один уровень если avg_lots_per_addr > 2.5 (concentration bias).
     """
     if median_ppm2 == 0:
@@ -5760,13 +5768,19 @@ def _compute_confidence(
     # Базовый уровень по уникальным адресам
     if unique_addr_count >= 7 and iqr_pct < 0.15:
         base = "high"
-    elif unique_addr_count >= 4:
+    elif unique_addr_count >= 4 and iqr_pct < 0.35:
         base = "medium"
     elif unique_addr_count >= 2 and iqr_pct < 0.25:
         base = "medium"
     else:
         base = "low"
 
+    # #R2-H2: расширение радиуса/площади из-за нехватки данных + высокий разброс
+    # (IQR/median > 0.30) не может честно оставаться medium/high — иначе badge
+    # противоречит объяснению («расширили радиус … ±45%»). Форсим low.
+    if base != "low" and (fallback_radius_used or area_widened) and iqr_pct > 0.30:
+        base = "low"
+
     # Downgrade на один шаг если слишком много лотов сконцентрировано на малом числе адресов
     if avg_lots_per_addr > 2.5 and base != "low":
         downgrade_map = {"high": "medium", "medium": "low"}

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/fixtures/backtest_baseline.json

@@ -7,16 +7,16 @@
       "n_covered": 0
     },
     "low": {
-      "coverage_pct": 81.82,
-      "mape_pct": 13.23,
-      "n": 275,
-      "n_covered": 225
+      "coverage_pct": 81.88,
+      "mape_pct": 13.25,
+      "n": 276,
+      "n_covered": 226
     },
     "medium": {
       "coverage_pct": 100.0,
-      "mape_pct": 14.64,
-      "n": 2,
-      "n_covered": 2
+      "mape_pct": 6.99,
+      "n": 1,
+      "n_covered": 1
     }
   },
   "confidence_order": [
@@ -136,14 +136,14 @@
         "n_covered": 0
       },
       "low": {
-        "coverage_pct": 81.82,
-        "n": 275,
-        "n_covered": 225
+        "coverage_pct": 81.88,
+        "n": 276,
+        "n_covered": 226
       },
       "medium": {
         "coverage_pct": 100.0,
-        "n": 2,
-        "n_covered": 2
+        "n": 1,
+        "n_covered": 1
       }
     }
   },

tradein-mvp/backend/tests/test_estimator_pure_units.py

@@ -181,18 +181,49 @@ def test_confidence_high_with_7_unique_addresses_and_tight_iqr() -> None:
 
 
 def test_confidence_medium_via_4_unique_addresses() -> None:
-    # 4 unique addresses → medium branch (independent of IQR).
-    # Wide IQR ensures it is NOT "high". avg = 4/4 = 1.0 (no downgrade).
+    # #R2-H2: 4 unique addresses AND IQR/median < 0.35 → medium. avg = 4/4 = 1.0 (no downgrade).
+    listings = _addr_lots(["a", "b", "c", "d"])
+    level, _ = estimator._compute_confidence(
+        n_analogs=4,
+        median_ppm2=100,
+        q1=90,
+        q3=115,  # IQR/median = 0.25 < 0.35 → medium
+        fallback_radius_used=False,
+        listings=listings,
+    )
+    assert level == "medium"
+
+
+def test_confidence_4_addresses_wide_iqr_now_low() -> None:
+    # #R2-H2: 4 unique addresses but IQR/median = 0.60 (huge dispersion) → low, NOT medium.
+    # Dispersion ceiling: the badge must not contradict a ±30% spread in its own explanation.
     listings = _addr_lots(["a", "b", "c", "d"])
     level, _ = estimator._compute_confidence(
         n_analogs=4,
         median_ppm2=100,
         q1=70,
-        q3=130,  # IQR/median = 0.60 → not high
+        q3=130,  # IQR/median = 0.60
         fallback_radius_used=False,
         listings=listings,
     )
-    assert level == "medium"
+    assert level == "low"
+
+
+def test_confidence_force_low_on_radius_widen_with_dispersion() -> None:
+    # #R2-H2: a pool that would be medium (4 addr, IQR 0.32 < 0.35) is FORCED low when it
+    # was radius-widened due to sparse data AND spread > 0.30 — badge can't say "medium"
+    # while the explanation admits "расширили радиус … из-за нехватки данных".
+    listings = _addr_lots(["a", "b", "c", "d"])
+    level, expl = estimator._compute_confidence(
+        n_analogs=4,
+        median_ppm2=100,
+        q1=84,
+        q3=116,  # IQR/median = 0.32 → medium base, then forced low
+        fallback_radius_used=True,
+        listings=listings,
+    )
+    assert level == "low"
+    assert "расширили радиус" in expl
 
 
 def test_confidence_medium_via_2_unique_addresses_and_tight_iqr() -> None: