feat(forecasting): §25.3 TRUE own-portfolio cannibalization overlap (#1169 PR2) #1171

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bot-backend merged 1 commit from feat/cannibalization-overlap-952b into main 2026-06-08 11:58:03 +00:00

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347203dfda feat(forecasting): §25.3 TRUE own-portfolio cannibalization overlap (#1169 PR2)
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Upgrade the §25.3 cannibalization index from a same-class-competitor proxy to
true own-portfolio overlap: score the recommended candidate segment against the
developer's own portfolio (get_own_portfolio, #1169 PR1) across axes —
audience/class (ordinal distance), price ₽/м² (interval overlap), unit-mix
(L1 similarity), timing (half-life decay) — geo-weighted by haversine proximity
to the parcel, aggregated by geo-weighted soft-max (the strongest nearby
cannibalizer dominates, not a diluting mean). Empty portfolio -> labelled proxy
fallback, confidence forced low, never presented as the true index.

Pure scoring fns unit-tested without DB; None-not-0 on missing axes; thin/
only-current portfolio -> low confidence + §26 note; deterministic (sorted
tie-breaks, no RNG). class+price+geo active now; unit-mix+timing plumbed via
optional params for a follow-up that wires them from the orchestrator horizon.
ruff + mypy clean; 151 special-index tests pass (964 forecasting dir, no regr).

Refs #1169
2026-06-08 16:47:18 +05:00