frontend/src/app/site-finder/analysis/[cad]/AnalysisPageContent.tsx

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import { Section2NetworksUtilities } from "@/components/site-finder/analysis/Sec
 import { Section3SettingsAndCompetitors } from "@/components/site-finder/analysis/Section3SettingsAndCompetitors";
 import { Section4Estimate } from "@/components/site-finder/analysis/Section4Estimate";
 import { Section5Atmosphere } from "@/components/site-finder/analysis/Section5Atmosphere";
+import { Section6Forecast } from "@/components/site-finder/analysis/Section6Forecast";
 import { useParcelAnalyzeQuery } from "@/lib/site-finder-api";
 import type { ParcelAnalysis } from "@/types/site-finder";
 
@@ -134,6 +135,9 @@ export function AnalysisPageContent({ cad }: Props) {
 
           {/* Section 5 — IMPLEMENTED in A11 */}
           <Section5Atmosphere cad={cad} />
+
+          {/* Section 6 — IMPLEMENTED in 958-B3 (§22 forecast) */}
+          <Section6Forecast cad={cad} />
         </div>
       </div>
     </main>
@@ -215,6 +219,15 @@ const NAV_ITEMS = [
   },
   { id: "section-4", label: "4. Оценка" },
   { id: "section-5", label: "5. Атмосфера" },
+  {
+    id: "section-6",
+    label: "6. Прогноз",
+    children: [
+      { id: "section-6-1", label: "6.1 Прогноз по горизонтам" },
+      { id: "section-6-2", label: "6.2 Сценарии" },
+      { id: "section-6-3", label: "6.3 Уверенность" },
+    ],
+  },
 ];
 
 function AnalysisSidebarNav() {

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/ForecastConfidenceBlock.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@
+"use client";
+
+/**
+ * 6.3 Уровень уверенности — level pill + EXPLICIT drivers list from
+ * confidence.factors (DoD: «явный список drivers»).
+ *
+ * The factors map is mostly { note, level, value } entries, but the prod
+ * envelope also carries a stray boolean `advisory_capped` — narrowed out via a
+ * runtime type guard so we never render a non-factor.
+ */
+
+import { Badge } from "@/components/ui/Badge";
+import type { ConfidenceFactor, ReportConfidence } from "@/types/forecast";
+import { CONFIDENCE_RU, confidenceVariant } from "./forecast-helpers";
+
+interface Props {
+  confidence: ReportConfidence;
+}
+
+// Human-readable labels for known factor keys; unknown keys fall back to the key.
+const FACTOR_RU: Record<string, string> = {
+  deal_count: "Объём сделок",
+  analog_count: "Аналоги (ЖК)",
+  domrf_coverage: "Покрытие ДОМ.РФ",
+  history_months: "Глубина истории",
+  component: "Компонент",
+};
+
+function isConfidenceFactor(v: unknown): v is ConfidenceFactor {
+  if (typeof v !== "object" || v === null) return false;
+  const o = v as Record<string, unknown>;
+  return (
+    typeof o.note === "string" &&
+    (o.level === "high" || o.level === "medium" || o.level === "low")
+  );
+}
+
+function factorLabel(key: string): string {
+  if (FACTOR_RU[key]) return FACTOR_RU[key];
+  // component_2..N → «Компонент N» (note уже несёт «вкладывающий сервис: …»)
+  const m = key.match(/^component_(\d+)$/);
+  if (m) return `Компонент ${m[1]}`;
+  return key;
+}
+
+function formatFactorValue(value: number | null): string | null {
+  if (value == null) return null;
+  // Fractions in 0..1 read as percent (e.g. coverage); integers/large stay raw.
+  if (value > 0 && value < 1) return `${Math.round(value * 100)}%`;
+  return Math.round(value).toLocaleString("ru");
+}
+
+export function ForecastConfidenceBlock({ confidence }: Props) {
+  const level = confidence.level;
+
+  const drivers = Object.entries(confidence.factors)
+    .filter((entry): entry is [string, ConfidenceFactor] =>
+      isConfidenceFactor(entry[1]),
+    )
+    // Sort high → medium → low so the strongest evidence reads first.
+    .sort((a, b) => LEVEL_RANK[a[1].level] - LEVEL_RANK[b[1].level]);
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 12 }}>
+      {/* Level pill + rationale */}
+      <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 8 }}>
+        <div style={{ display: "flex", alignItems: "center", gap: 8 }}>
+          <span
+            style={{
+              fontSize: 11,
+              fontWeight: 500,
+              letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+              textTransform: "uppercase",
+              color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+            }}
+          >
+            Уровень уверенности
+          </span>
+          {level ? (
+            <Badge variant={confidenceVariant(level)} size="md">
+              {CONFIDENCE_RU[level]}
+            </Badge>
+          ) : (
+            <span style={{ fontSize: 13, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)" }}>
+              не определена
+            </span>
+          )}
+        </div>
+        {confidence.rationale && (
+          <p
+            style={{
+              margin: 0,
+              fontSize: 13,
+              lineHeight: 1.5,
+              color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+            }}
+          >
+            {confidence.rationale}
+          </p>
+        )}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Explicit drivers list */}
+      {drivers.length > 0 ? (
+        <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 6 }}>
+          <span
+            style={{
+              fontSize: 11,
+              fontWeight: 500,
+              letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+              textTransform: "uppercase",
+              color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+            }}
+          >
+            Факторы достоверности ({drivers.length})
+          </span>
+          <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 6 }}>
+            {drivers.map(([key, factor]) => {
+              const valueStr = formatFactorValue(factor.value);
+              return (
+                <div
+                  key={key}
+                  style={{
+                    display: "flex",
+                    alignItems: "flex-start",
+                    gap: 8,
+                    padding: "8px 12px",
+                    background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+                    border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+                    borderRadius: 8,
+                  }}
+                >
+                  <Badge variant={confidenceVariant(factor.level)} size="sm">
+                    {CONFIDENCE_RU[factor.level]}
+                  </Badge>
+                  <div style={{ flex: 1, minWidth: 0 }}>
+                    <div
+                      style={{
+                        fontSize: 13,
+                        fontWeight: 500,
+                        color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+                      }}
+                    >
+                      {factorLabel(key)}
+                      {valueStr != null && (
+                        <span
+                          style={{
+                            marginLeft: 6,
+                            fontWeight: 400,
+                            color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+                            fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+                          }}
+                        >
+                          · {valueStr}
+                        </span>
+                      )}
+                    </div>
+                    <div
+                      style={{
+                        fontSize: 12,
+                        color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+                        marginTop: 2,
+                      }}
+                    >
+                      {factor.note}
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              );
+            })}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      ) : (
+        <p style={{ fontSize: 13, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)", margin: 0 }}>
+          Факторы достоверности недоступны.
+        </p>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+const LEVEL_RANK: Record<ConfidenceFactor["level"], number> = {
+  high: 0,
+  medium: 1,
+  low: 2,
+};

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/ForecastHorizonsBlock.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,177 @@
+"use client";
+
+/**
+ * 6.1 Прогноз по горизонтам — compact table over future_market.forecasts_by_horizon.
+ *
+ * Columns: горизонт (мес) · индекс дефицита (color-coded) · месяцы предложения ·
+ * прогноз спроса/предложения · ставка (% годовых) · фраза чувствительности к ставке.
+ *
+ * Deficit semantics (HARD, see frontend rules):
+ *   deficit_index > 0  → недонасыщенность (повод строить)  → success/green
+ *   deficit_index < 0  → затоварка (предложения > спроса)  → warn/danger
+ *   deficit_index ≈ 0  → баланс                            → neutral
+ */
+
+import { Badge } from "@/components/ui/Badge";
+import type { DemandSupplyForecast } from "@/types/forecast";
+import {
+  DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS,
+  deficitVariant,
+  deficitWord,
+  fmtNum,
+} from "./forecast-helpers";
+
+interface Props {
+  forecasts: DemandSupplyForecast[];
+}
+
+const TH_STYLE: React.CSSProperties = {
+  textAlign: "left",
+  padding: "8px 12px",
+  fontSize: 11,
+  fontWeight: 500,
+  letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+  textTransform: "uppercase",
+  color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+  whiteSpace: "nowrap",
+  borderBottom: "1px solid var(--border-card)",
+};
+
+const TD_STYLE: React.CSSProperties = {
+  padding: "10px 12px",
+  fontSize: 13,
+  color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+  verticalAlign: "top",
+  borderBottom: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+  fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+};
+
+const NUM_TD: React.CSSProperties = { ...TD_STYLE, textAlign: "right" };
+
+export function ForecastHorizonsBlock({ forecasts }: Props) {
+  if (forecasts.length === 0) {
+    return (
+      <p style={{ fontSize: 13, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)", margin: 0 }}>
+        Прогноз по горизонтам недоступен.
+      </p>
+    );
+  }
+
+  const rows = [...forecasts].sort(
+    (a, b) => a.horizon_months - b.horizon_months,
+  );
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 12 }}>
+      <div style={{ overflowX: "auto" }}>
+        <table
+          style={{
+            width: "100%",
+            borderCollapse: "collapse",
+            minWidth: 720,
+          }}
+        >
+          <thead>
+            <tr>
+              <th style={TH_STYLE}>Горизонт</th>
+              <th style={TH_STYLE}>Индекс дефицита</th>
+              <th style={{ ...TH_STYLE, textAlign: "right" }}>
+                Мес. предложения
+              </th>
+              <th style={{ ...TH_STYLE, textAlign: "right" }}>Прогноз спроса</th>
+              <th style={{ ...TH_STYLE, textAlign: "right" }}>
+                Прогноз предложения
+              </th>
+              <th style={{ ...TH_STYLE, textAlign: "right" }}>Ставка</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody>
+            {rows.map((f) => {
+              const di = f.deficit_index;
+              const balanced = Math.abs(di) < DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS;
+              return (
+                <tr key={f.horizon_months}>
+                  <td style={TD_STYLE}>{f.horizon_months} мес.</td>
+                  <td style={TD_STYLE}>
+                    <Badge variant={deficitVariant(di)} size="sm">
+                      {di > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+                      {fmtNum(di, 2)}
+                    </Badge>
+                    <span
+                      style={{
+                        marginLeft: 8,
+                        fontSize: 12,
+                        color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+                      }}
+                    >
+                      {deficitWord(di)}
+                    </span>
+                  </td>
+                  <td style={NUM_TD}>
+                    {balanced ? "—" : fmtNum(f.months_of_inventory, 1)}
+                  </td>
+                  <td style={NUM_TD}>
+                    {Math.round(f.projected_demand_units).toLocaleString("ru")}
+                  </td>
+                  <td style={NUM_TD}>
+                    {Math.round(f.projected_supply_units).toLocaleString("ru")}
+                  </td>
+                  <td style={NUM_TD}>{fmtNum(f.rate_future, 2)}%</td>
+                </tr>
+              );
+            })}
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Rate-sensitivity phrase — shared across horizons in current data; show
+          the distinct phrases once each to avoid noisy repetition. */}
+      <RateSensitivityNotes forecasts={rows} />
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function RateSensitivityNotes({
+  forecasts,
+}: {
+  forecasts: DemandSupplyForecast[];
+}) {
+  const phrases = Array.from(
+    new Set(
+      forecasts
+        .map((f) => f.rate_sensitivity_phrase?.trim())
+        .filter((p): p is string => !!p),
+    ),
+  );
+  if (phrases.length === 0) return null;
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      style={{
+        display: "flex",
+        flexDirection: "column",
+        gap: 4,
+        fontSize: 12,
+        color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+      }}
+    >
+      <span
+        style={{
+          fontSize: 11,
+          fontWeight: 500,
+          letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+          textTransform: "uppercase",
+          color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+        }}
+      >
+        Чувствительность к ключевой ставке
+      </span>
+      {phrases.map((p, i) => (
+        <span key={i}>
+          {p.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + p.slice(1)}
+          {/\.$/.test(p) ? "" : "."}
+        </span>
+      ))}
+    </div>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/ScenariosBlock.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,237 @@
+"use client";
+
+/**
+ * 6.2 Сценарии — conservative / base / aggressive side by side.
+ *
+ * For each scenario shows the deficit_index at the target horizon (preferring
+ * the scenario's own forecast row, falling back to scenarios_summary) and the
+ * rate_path across all horizons (ключевая ставка, % годовых).
+ */
+
+import { Badge } from "@/components/ui/Badge";
+import type {
+  DemandSupplyForecast,
+  RatePath,
+  ReportScenarios,
+  ScenarioKey,
+  ScenariosSummary,
+} from "@/types/forecast";
+import {
+  DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS,
+  deficitVariant,
+  deficitWord,
+  fmtNum,
+} from "./forecast-helpers";
+
+interface Props {
+  scenarios: ReportScenarios;
+  scenariosSummary: ScenariosSummary | null;
+  targetHorizon: number;
+}
+
+// Display order: conservative → base → aggressive (worst-to-best rate path).
+const SCENARIO_ORDER: ScenarioKey[] = ["conservative", "base", "aggressive"];
+
+const SCENARIO_RU: Record<ScenarioKey, string> = {
+  conservative: "Консервативный",
+  base: "Базовый",
+  aggressive: "Агрессивный",
+};
+
+const SCENARIO_HINT: Record<ScenarioKey, string> = {
+  conservative: "ставка выше",
+  base: "ставка без изменений",
+  aggressive: "ставка ниже",
+};
+
+function pickHorizonForecast(
+  forecasts: DemandSupplyForecast[],
+  targetHorizon: number,
+): DemandSupplyForecast | null {
+  if (forecasts.length === 0) return null;
+  const exact = forecasts.find((f) => f.horizon_months === targetHorizon);
+  if (exact) return exact;
+  // Fall back to the longest available horizon.
+  return [...forecasts].sort((a, b) => b.horizon_months - a.horizon_months)[0];
+}
+
+function deficitForScenario(
+  key: ScenarioKey,
+  scenarios: ReportScenarios,
+  scenariosSummary: ScenariosSummary | null,
+  targetHorizon: number,
+): number | null {
+  const sc = scenarios.by_scenario[key];
+  const fc = sc ? pickHorizonForecast(sc.forecasts, targetHorizon) : null;
+  if (fc) return fc.deficit_index;
+  if (scenariosSummary) return scenariosSummary[key];
+  return null;
+}
+
+export function ScenariosBlock({
+  scenarios,
+  scenariosSummary,
+  targetHorizon,
+}: Props) {
+  const present = SCENARIO_ORDER.filter(
+    (k) => scenarios.by_scenario[k] != null || scenariosSummary != null,
+  );
+
+  if (present.length === 0) {
+    return (
+      <p style={{ fontSize: 13, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)", margin: 0 }}>
+        Сценарный прогноз недоступен.
+      </p>
+    );
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 12 }}>
+      <div
+        style={{
+          display: "grid",
+          gridTemplateColumns: "repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr))",
+          gap: 12,
+        }}
+      >
+        {present.map((key) => {
+          const sc = scenarios.by_scenario[key];
+          const di = deficitForScenario(
+            key,
+            scenarios,
+            scenariosSummary,
+            targetHorizon,
+          );
+          return (
+            <ScenarioCard
+              key={key}
+              name={SCENARIO_RU[key]}
+              hint={SCENARIO_HINT[key]}
+              deficitIndex={di}
+              ratePath={sc?.rate_path}
+              targetHorizon={targetHorizon}
+            />
+          );
+        })}
+      </div>
+      <p style={{ fontSize: 12, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)", margin: 0 }}>
+        Индекс дефицита приведён на целевом горизонте {targetHorizon} мес.
+        Конверт ставки — путь ключевой ставки (% годовых) по горизонтам.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function ScenarioCard({
+  name,
+  hint,
+  deficitIndex,
+  ratePath,
+  targetHorizon,
+}: {
+  name: string;
+  hint: string;
+  deficitIndex: number | null;
+  ratePath: RatePath | undefined;
+  targetHorizon: number;
+}) {
+  const horizons = ratePath
+    ? Object.keys(ratePath)
+        .map((h) => Number(h))
+        .sort((a, b) => a - b)
+    : [];
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      style={{
+        borderRadius: 12,
+        border: "1px solid var(--border-card)",
+        background: "var(--bg-card)",
+        padding: 16,
+        display: "flex",
+        flexDirection: "column",
+        gap: 12,
+      }}
+    >
+      <div>
+        <div
+          style={{
+            fontSize: 13,
+            fontWeight: 600,
+            color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+          }}
+        >
+          {name}
+        </div>
+        <div style={{ fontSize: 12, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)", marginTop: 2 }}>
+          {hint}
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Deficit at target horizon */}
+      <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 4 }}>
+        <span
+          style={{
+            fontSize: 11,
+            fontWeight: 500,
+            letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+            textTransform: "uppercase",
+            color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+          }}
+        >
+          Индекс дефицита · {targetHorizon} мес.
+        </span>
+        {deficitIndex != null ? (
+          <div style={{ display: "flex", alignItems: "center", gap: 8 }}>
+            <Badge variant={deficitVariant(deficitIndex)} size="md">
+              {deficitIndex > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+              {fmtNum(deficitIndex, 2)}
+            </Badge>
+            <span style={{ fontSize: 12, color: "var(--fg-secondary)" }}>
+              {Math.abs(deficitIndex) < DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS
+                ? "баланс"
+                : deficitWord(deficitIndex)}
+            </span>
+          </div>
+        ) : (
+          <span style={{ fontSize: 13, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)" }}>—</span>
+        )}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Rate path */}
+      {horizons.length > 0 && ratePath && (
+        <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 4 }}>
+          <span
+            style={{
+              fontSize: 11,
+              fontWeight: 500,
+              letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+              textTransform: "uppercase",
+              color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+            }}
+          >
+            Конверт ставки
+          </span>
+          <div style={{ display: "flex", flexWrap: "wrap", gap: 6 }}>
+            {horizons.map((h) => (
+              <span
+                key={h}
+                style={{
+                  fontSize: 12,
+                  color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+                  background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+                  border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+                  borderRadius: 6,
+                  padding: "2px 6px",
+                  fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+                }}
+              >
+                {h} мес.: {fmtNum(ratePath[String(h)], 2)}%
+              </span>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/Section6Forecast.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,362 @@
+"use client";
+
+/**
+ * Section6Forecast — "6. Прогноз" (958-B3 / §22).
+ *
+ * Renders the async §22 demand/supply forecast, scenarios and confidence on the
+ * Site Finder analysis screen. Self-fetches via useParcelForecastQuery, which
+ * POLLs GET /api/v1/parcels/{cad}/forecast every 4s until status === "ready"
+ * (the forecast is enqueued by useParcelAnalyzeQuery on page mount — render-only
+ * here, no trigger).
+ *
+ * Layout mirrors Section1-5: dark HeadlineBar + section root id="section-6".
+ *   exec_summary banner (headline + verdict + KPI row)
+ *   6.1 Прогноз по горизонтам   → ForecastHorizonsBlock
+ *   6.2 Сценарии                → ScenariosBlock
+ *   6.3 Уверенность             → ForecastConfidenceBlock
+ *   advisory disclaimer (footer)
+ */
+
+import { LineChart } from "lucide-react";
+
+import { HeadlineBar } from "@/components/ui/HeadlineBar";
+import { KpiCard } from "@/components/site-finder/KpiCard";
+import { useParcelForecastQuery } from "@/lib/site-finder-api";
+import type { ForecastReport } from "@/types/forecast";
+
+import { ForecastHorizonsBlock } from "./ForecastHorizonsBlock";
+import { ScenariosBlock } from "./ScenariosBlock";
+import { ForecastConfidenceBlock } from "./ForecastConfidenceBlock";
+import { CONFIDENCE_RU, deficitVariant, fmtNum } from "./forecast-helpers";
+
+interface Props {
+  cad: string;
+}
+
+const ADVISORY_DISCLAIMER =
+  "Оценка advisory — не основание для инвест-решения.";
+
+const SCROLL_MARGIN = 72;
+
+// KpiCard color enum (site-finder variant) mapped from Badge variant words.
+function kpiColorForDeficit(deficitIndex: number): "green" | "red" | "neutral" {
+  const v = deficitVariant(deficitIndex);
+  if (v === "success") return "green";
+  if (v === "danger") return "red";
+  return "neutral";
+}
+
+// ── Section6Forecast ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export function Section6Forecast({ cad }: Props) {
+  const { data, isLoading, error } = useParcelForecastQuery(cad);
+
+  const isPending =
+    isLoading || (data != null && data.status !== "ready") || data == null;
+
+  // ── Pending: forecast still computing (poll in flight) ─────────────────────
+  if (isPending && !error) {
+    return (
+      <section id="section-6" style={{ scrollMarginTop: SCROLL_MARGIN }}>
+        <HeadlineBar
+          title="6. Прогноз"
+          subtitle="Прогноз спроса, предложения и сценарии (§22)."
+        />
+        <div
+          style={{
+            marginTop: 12,
+            display: "flex",
+            flexDirection: "column",
+            gap: 12,
+          }}
+        >
+          <div
+            style={{
+              borderRadius: 12,
+              background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+              border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+              padding: "24px 20px",
+              textAlign: "center",
+              color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+              fontSize: 13,
+            }}
+          >
+            Прогноз рассчитывается…
+          </div>
+          <div
+            style={{
+              display: "grid",
+              gridTemplateColumns: "repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr))",
+              gap: 12,
+            }}
+          >
+            {[0, 1, 2].map((i) => (
+              <div
+                key={i}
+                style={{
+                  borderRadius: 12,
+                  background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+                  border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+                  height: 88,
+                }}
+                aria-hidden
+              />
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </section>
+    );
+  }
+
+  // ── Error ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  if (error || !data || data.status !== "ready" || !data.report) {
+    return (
+      <section id="section-6" style={{ scrollMarginTop: SCROLL_MARGIN }}>
+        <HeadlineBar title="6. Прогноз" />
+        <div
+          style={{
+            marginTop: 12,
+            borderRadius: 12,
+            padding: "32px 24px",
+            background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+            border: "1px dashed var(--border-strong)",
+            textAlign: "center",
+            color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+            fontSize: 13,
+            display: "flex",
+            flexDirection: "column",
+            alignItems: "center",
+            gap: 8,
+          }}
+        >
+          <LineChart size={20} aria-hidden />
+          Данные прогноза недоступны
+        </div>
+      </section>
+    );
+  }
+
+  return <ForecastReady report={data.report} />;
+}
+
+// ── ForecastReady (report present) ───────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function ForecastReady({ report }: { report: ForecastReport }) {
+  const exec = report.exec_summary;
+  const fm = report.future_market;
+
+  // Target horizon: prefer future_supply.horizon_months, else median of meta
+  // horizons, else 12.
+  const targetHorizon =
+    fm.future_supply?.horizon_months ??
+    medianHorizon(report.meta.horizons) ??
+    12;
+
+  const kn = exec.key_numbers;
+
+  const hasHorizons = fm.forecasts_by_horizon.length > 0;
+  const hasScenarios =
+    Object.keys(report.scenarios.by_scenario).length > 0 ||
+    fm.scenarios_summary != null;
+  const hasConfidence =
+    report.confidence.level != null ||
+    Object.keys(report.confidence.factors).length > 0;
+
+  const hasAny = hasHorizons || hasScenarios || hasConfidence;
+
+  // Headline subtitle = future_market summary (one sentence «откуда / что значит»).
+  const subtitle = fm.summary ?? undefined;
+
+  return (
+    <section id="section-6" style={{ scrollMarginTop: SCROLL_MARGIN }}>
+      <HeadlineBar
+        title={exec.headline ?? "6. Прогноз"}
+        subtitle={subtitle}
+      />
+
+      <div
+        style={{
+          marginTop: 12,
+          display: "flex",
+          flexDirection: "column",
+          gap: 24,
+        }}
+      >
+        {/* exec_summary verdict + KPI row */}
+        {exec.verdict && (
+          <p
+            style={{
+              margin: 0,
+              fontSize: 14,
+              lineHeight: 1.5,
+              color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+            }}
+          >
+            {exec.verdict}
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        <div
+          style={{
+            display: "grid",
+            gridTemplateColumns: "repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr))",
+            gap: 12,
+          }}
+        >
+          <KpiCard
+            label="Индекс дефицита"
+            value={
+              kn.deficit_index != null
+                ? `${kn.deficit_index > 0 ? "+" : ""}${fmtNum(kn.deficit_index, 2)}`
+                : "—"
+            }
+            color={
+              kn.deficit_index != null
+                ? kpiColorForDeficit(kn.deficit_index)
+                : "neutral"
+            }
+          />
+          <KpiCard
+            label="Мес. предложения"
+            value={
+              kn.months_of_inventory != null
+                ? fmtNum(kn.months_of_inventory, 1)
+                : "—"
+            }
+            color="neutral"
+          />
+          <KpiCard
+            label="Итоговый скор"
+            value={
+              kn.overall_score != null ? fmtNum(kn.overall_score, 2) : "—"
+            }
+            color="blue"
+          />
+          <KpiCard
+            label="Уверенность"
+            value={
+              (exec.overall_confidence ?? kn.confidence) != null
+                ? CONFIDENCE_RU[
+                    (exec.overall_confidence ?? kn.confidence) as
+                      | "high"
+                      | "medium"
+                      | "low"
+                  ]
+                : "—"
+            }
+            color={confidenceKpiColor(exec.overall_confidence ?? kn.confidence)}
+          />
+        </div>
+
+        {!hasAny && (
+          <div
+            style={{
+              borderRadius: 12,
+              padding: "24px 20px",
+              background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+              border: "1px dashed var(--border-strong)",
+              textAlign: "center",
+              color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+              fontSize: 13,
+            }}
+          >
+            Данные прогноза недоступны
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 6.1 Прогноз по горизонтам */}
+        {hasHorizons && (
+          <SubBlock id="section-6-1" title="6.1 Прогноз по горизонтам">
+            <ForecastHorizonsBlock forecasts={fm.forecasts_by_horizon} />
+          </SubBlock>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 6.2 Сценарии */}
+        {hasScenarios && (
+          <SubBlock id="section-6-2" title="6.2 Сценарии">
+            <ScenariosBlock
+              scenarios={report.scenarios}
+              scenariosSummary={fm.scenarios_summary}
+              targetHorizon={targetHorizon}
+            />
+          </SubBlock>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 6.3 Уверенность */}
+        {hasConfidence && (
+          <SubBlock id="section-6-3" title="6.3 Уверенность">
+            <ForecastConfidenceBlock confidence={report.confidence} />
+          </SubBlock>
+        )}
+
+        {/* Advisory disclaimer */}
+        <p
+          style={{
+            margin: 0,
+            fontSize: 12,
+            lineHeight: 1.5,
+            color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+            paddingTop: 12,
+            borderTop: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+          }}
+        >
+          {ADVISORY_DISCLAIMER}
+        </p>
+      </div>
+    </section>
+  );
+}
+
+// ── SubBlock wrapper (6.1 / 6.2 / 6.3) ───────────────────────────────────────
+
+function SubBlock({
+  id,
+  title,
+  children,
+}: {
+  id: string;
+  title: string;
+  children: React.ReactNode;
+}) {
+  return (
+    <div id={id} style={{ scrollMarginTop: SCROLL_MARGIN }}>
+      <h3
+        style={{
+          margin: "0 0 12px",
+          fontSize: 14,
+          fontWeight: 600,
+          color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+        }}
+      >
+        {title}
+      </h3>
+      <div
+        style={{
+          borderRadius: 12,
+          border: "1px solid var(--border-card)",
+          background: "var(--bg-card)",
+          padding: 20,
+        }}
+      >
+        {children}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function medianHorizon(horizons: number[]): number | null {
+  if (horizons.length === 0) return null;
+  const sorted = [...horizons].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  return sorted[Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)];
+}
+
+function confidenceKpiColor(
+  level: "high" | "medium" | "low" | null,
+): "green" | "amber" | "red" | "neutral" {
+  if (level === "high") return "green";
+  if (level === "medium") return "amber";
+  if (level === "low") return "red";
+  return "neutral";
+}

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/forecast-helpers.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+/**
+ * Shared helpers for Section 6 (forecast) blocks — deficit semantics, confidence
+ * mapping, RU number formatting. Kept framework-agnostic (no JSX) so the three
+ * forecast blocks share one source of truth.
+ */
+
+import type { BadgeVariant } from "@/components/ui/Badge";
+import type { ConfidenceLevel } from "@/types/forecast";
+
+/** Below this |deficit_index| we treat the market as balanced (neutral). */
+export const DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS = 0.05;
+
+/**
+ * Deficit semantics (HARD): >0 недонасыщенность (повод строить, success);
+ * <0 затоварка (warn/danger); ≈0 баланс (neutral).
+ */
+export function deficitVariant(deficitIndex: number): BadgeVariant {
+  if (deficitIndex > DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS) return "success";
+  if (deficitIndex < -DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS) return "danger";
+  return "neutral";
+}
+
+export function deficitWord(deficitIndex: number): string {
+  if (deficitIndex > DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS) return "недонасыщенность";
+  if (deficitIndex < -DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS) return "затоварка";
+  return "баланс";
+}
+
+// ── Confidence ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export const CONFIDENCE_RU: Record<ConfidenceLevel, string> = {
+  high: "высокая",
+  medium: "средняя",
+  low: "низкая",
+};
+
+export function confidenceVariant(level: ConfidenceLevel): BadgeVariant {
+  if (level === "high") return "success";
+  if (level === "medium") return "warning";
+  return "danger";
+}
+
+/**
+ * ConfidenceBadge expects a numeric 0..1 value but the report carries a level
+ * only. Derive a representative midpoint so the numeric badge reads sensibly
+ * if/when reused.
+ */
+export function confidenceLevelToValue(level: ConfidenceLevel): number {
+  if (level === "high") return 0.85;
+  if (level === "medium") return 0.55;
+  return 0.25;
+}
+
+// ── Number formatting ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Fixed-decimal RU number (тонкая неразрывная группировка тысяч). Нормализует
+ * ведущий знак минуса в Unicode «−» (U+2212) per ui-microcopy (≥ ≤ ± Unicode).
+ * `.replace` бьёт только первое вхождение = ведущий знак (RU-группировка — NBSP,
+ * не дефис), так что числовая часть не затрагивается.
+ */
+export function fmtNum(value: number, digits = 1): string {
+  return value
+    .toLocaleString("ru", {
+      minimumFractionDigits: digits,
+      maximumFractionDigits: digits,
+    })
+    .replace("-", "−");
+}

frontend/src/lib/site-finder-api.ts

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
  */
 
 import { useQuery } from "@tanstack/react-query";
-import { apiFetch } from "@/lib/api";
+import { apiFetch, apiFetchWithStatus } from "@/lib/api";
 import {
   MOCK_PARCELS_BBOX,
   MOCK_RECENT_PARCELS,
@@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ import {
 import fixtureParcels from "@/lib/mocks/parcels-bbox.json";
 import fixtureAnalyze from "@/lib/mocks/parcel-analyze.json";
 import fixturePoiScore from "@/lib/mocks/poi-score.json";
+import fixtureForecast from "@/lib/mocks/parcel-forecast.json";
+import type { ForecastEnvelope } from "@/types/forecast";
 
 // ── Types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
@@ -391,3 +393,41 @@ export function useParcelPoiScoreQuery(cad: string) {
     retry: 1,
   });
 }
+
+// ── Hook: useParcelForecastQuery (958-B3 / §22) ──────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Polls GET /api/v1/parcels/{cad}/forecast until the async §22 forecast is
+ * ready. The forecast is enqueued fire-and-forget by useParcelAnalyzeQuery on
+ * page mount (POST /analyze) — this hook does NOT trigger it, only reads.
+ *
+ * Endpoint contract:
+ *   200 → { status: "ready", run_id, created_at, report }
+ *   202 → { status: "pending" } (also returned gracefully on any error — never 404/500)
+ *
+ * Polls every 4s while pending; stops once status === "ready". Mock mode
+ * (MOCK_ANALYZE) returns the committed prod fixture immediately.
+ */
+export function useParcelForecastQuery(cad: string) {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: ["parcel-forecast", cad],
+    queryFn: async (): Promise<ForecastEnvelope> => {
+      if (MOCK_ANALYZE) {
+        // Fixture is raw JSON (loose shape: factors carries a stray
+        // `advisory_capped` boolean) — cast via unknown, runtime guards in the
+        // confidence block narrow factor entries.
+        return fixtureForecast as unknown as ForecastEnvelope;
+      }
+      // apiFetchWithStatus tolerates the 202 path (Accepted) without throwing.
+      const { body } = await apiFetchWithStatus<ForecastEnvelope>(
+        `/api/v1/parcels/${encodeURIComponent(cad)}/forecast`,
+      );
+      return body;
+    },
+    enabled: !!cad,
+    // Stop polling once ready; otherwise re-poll every 4s while pending.
+    refetchInterval: (query) =>
+      query.state.data?.status === "ready" ? false : 4000,
+    retry: 1,
+  });
+}

frontend/src/types/forecast.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,181 @@
+/**
+ * §22 forecast / scenarios / confidence — TypeScript contract.
+ *
+ * Ground truth: the committed prod report at
+ * `src/lib/mocks/parcel-forecast.json` (run #68, parcel 66:41:0702048:27).
+ * Types describe ONLY the sub-shapes Section 6 renders; the §13 report is
+ * larger (scoring, market_now, product_tz, …) — fields not consumed here are
+ * intentionally left as optional/loose to avoid over-coupling to the backend.
+ *
+ * The endpoint envelope (GET /api/v1/parcels/{cad}/forecast):
+ *   200 → { status: "ready", run_id, created_at, report }
+ *   202 → { status: "pending" }
+ */
+
+export type ConfidenceLevel = "high" | "medium" | "low";
+
+/** Scenario keys produced by the §22 envelope generator. */
+export type ScenarioKey = "base" | "aggressive" | "conservative";
+
+// ── Segment ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface ForecastSegment {
+  district: string | null;
+  obj_class: string | null;
+  room_bucket: string | null;
+  price_bucket: string | null;
+}
+
+// ── Future competitor (forward-looking, distinct from market_now competitors) ─
+
+export interface FutureCompetitor {
+  obj_id: number;
+  comm_name: string | null;
+  obj_class: string | null;
+  distance_m: number;
+  flats_total: number;
+  relevance_weight: number;
+  velocity_per_month: number;
+}
+
+// ── Demand / supply forecast (one per horizon) ───────────────────────────────
+
+export interface DemandSupplyForecast {
+  segment: ForecastSegment;
+  advisory: boolean;
+  confidence: ConfidenceLevel;
+  open_units: number;
+  rate_future: number;
+  balance_ratio: number;
+  balance_units: number;
+  /** −1..1 — see deficit semantics: >0 недонасыщенность, <0 затоварка. */
+  deficit_index: number;
+  horizon_months: number;
+  macro_coefficient: number;
+  future_competitors: FutureCompetitor[];
+  future_online_units: number;
+  months_of_inventory: number;
+  hidden_release_units: number;
+  base_pace_units_per_mo: number;
+  projected_demand_units: number;
+  projected_supply_units: number;
+  demand_norm_coefficient: number;
+  rate_sensitivity_phrase: string;
+}
+
+// ── Exec summary ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface ReportExecSummaryKeyNumbers {
+  confidence: ConfidenceLevel | null;
+  deficit_index: number | null;
+  overall_score: number | null;
+  months_of_inventory: number | null;
+}
+
+export interface ReportExecSummary {
+  headline: string | null;
+  verdict: string | null;
+  key_numbers: ReportExecSummaryKeyNumbers;
+  overall_confidence: ConfidenceLevel | null;
+}
+
+// ── Future market ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface FutureSupplyBreakdown {
+  index: number;
+  open_units: number;
+  hidden_units: number;
+  months_of_pressure: number;
+  future_units_by_horizon: number;
+  monthly_absorption_units: number;
+}
+
+export interface FutureSupply {
+  index: number;
+  district: string | null;
+  breakdown: FutureSupplyBreakdown;
+  confidence: ConfidenceLevel;
+  premise_kind: string | null;
+  horizon_months: number;
+}
+
+/** deficit_index per scenario at the target horizon. */
+export interface ScenariosSummary {
+  base: number;
+  aggressive: number;
+  conservative: number;
+}
+
+export interface ReportFutureMarket {
+  summary: string | null;
+  forecasts_by_horizon: DemandSupplyForecast[];
+  future_supply: FutureSupply | null;
+  scenarios_summary: ScenariosSummary | null;
+  future_competitors: FutureCompetitor[];
+}
+
+// ── Scenarios ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Key path = horizon months (as string), value = key rate (% годовых). */
+export type RatePath = Record<string, number>;
+
+export interface ScenarioForecast {
+  advisory: boolean;
+  scenario: string;
+  forecasts: DemandSupplyForecast[];
+  rate_path: RatePath;
+}
+
+export interface ReportScenarios {
+  summary: string | null;
+  by_scenario: Partial<Record<ScenarioKey, ScenarioForecast>>;
+}
+
+// ── Confidence ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface ConfidenceFactor {
+  note: string;
+  level: ConfidenceLevel;
+  value: number | null;
+}
+
+export interface ReportConfidence {
+  level: ConfidenceLevel | null;
+  rationale: string | null;
+  /** The explicit drivers map (DoD: «явный список drivers»). */
+  factors: Record<string, ConfidenceFactor>;
+}
+
+// ── Meta ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface ReportMeta {
+  cad_num: string;
+  segment: ForecastSegment;
+  district: string | null;
+  horizons: number[];
+  generated_at: string | null;
+  schema_version: string;
+  generated_advisory: boolean;
+}
+
+// ── Report (only the sections Section 6 renders are typed precisely) ──────────
+
+export interface ForecastReport {
+  meta: ReportMeta;
+  /** Always true for §22 — drives the advisory disclaimer. */
+  advisory: boolean;
+  exec_summary: ReportExecSummary;
+  future_market: ReportFutureMarket;
+  scenarios: ReportScenarios;
+  confidence: ReportConfidence;
+  schema_version?: string;
+}
+
+// ── Envelope ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface ForecastEnvelope {
+  status: "ready" | "pending";
+  run_id?: number;
+  created_at?: string;
+  report?: ForecastReport;
+}