feat(forecasting): §11 macro-scenarios (#984, 954-A) #1016

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bot-backend merged 1 commit from feat/954a-scenarios into main 2026-06-03 07:59:22 +00:00

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6322d10199 feat(forecasting): §11 macro-scenarios (conservative/base/aggressive) (#984, 954-A)
Add scenarios.py: run the #952 demand↔supply engine under three key-rate
envelopes (base = hold_last_rate flat; conservative +2.0 п.п.; aggressive
−3.0 п.п., widening with horizon, clamped ≥0) → one ScenarioForecast each.
Single lever = rate_path into #952 (β stays counted-once in §9.4). Pure
build_rate_envelopes separated from DB orchestrator; advisory inherits #952
cap; graceful no-macro. Deterministic, no LLM, no SQL. 47 tests.
2026-06-03 12:59:17 +05:00