bot-backend
ed4335b932
The expected_sold_range_low/high were derived from the analog asking-IQR (× asking→sold ratio): only ~55% of actual sold prices fell inside the stated range — a 50%-ish interval mislabeled as the estimate's range. Replace with a calibrated band around the expected_sold POINT, gated behind estimate_calibrated_pi_enabled (default ON): range_low = expected_sold_price × 0.649 (empirical p10 of sold/expected_sold) range_high = expected_sold_price × 1.392 (empirical p90, n=2366 prod deals) This is a genuine ~80% prediction interval (verified 80.0% coverage on the 2366-deal sample). Headline asking range_low/high (market-asking IQR) untouched. Frozen backtest baseline regenerated: range_coverage.overall 55.23 → 80.14 (n_covered 153 → 222); expected_sold POINT mape/bias and headline unchanged (only the band moved). Tests asserting the old asking-IQR × ratio band updated to the calibrated band (documented behavior change).
154 lines
3.1 KiB
JSON
154 lines
3.1 KiB
JSON
{
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"calibration": {
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"high": {
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"coverage_pct": null,
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"mape_pct": null,
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"n": 0,
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"n_covered": 0
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},
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"low": {
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"coverage_pct": 80.0,
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"mape_pct": 18.63,
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"n": 275,
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"n_covered": 220
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},
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"medium": {
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"coverage_pct": 100.0,
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"mape_pct": 19.18,
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"n": 2,
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"n_covered": 2
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}
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},
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"confidence_order": [
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"high",
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"medium",
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"low"
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],
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"expected_sold": {
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"overall": {
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"mape_pct": 18.63,
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"median_bias_pct": -1.2,
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"n": 277,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -16.25,
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"p75_pct": 20.26
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},
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"per_rooms": {
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"0": {
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"label": "студия",
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"mape_pct": 27.97,
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"median_bias_pct": 27.56,
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"n": 37,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -8.97,
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"p75_pct": 38.45
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},
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"1": {
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"label": "1к",
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"mape_pct": 19.55,
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"median_bias_pct": -8.08,
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"n": 93,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -21.27,
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"p75_pct": 13.3
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},
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"2": {
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"label": "2к",
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"mape_pct": 16.22,
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"median_bias_pct": -8.82,
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"n": 74,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -21.01,
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"p75_pct": 6.13
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},
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"3": {
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"label": "3к",
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"mape_pct": 10.52,
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"median_bias_pct": 4.08,
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"n": 43,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -6.54,
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"p75_pct": 11.96
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},
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"4": {
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"label": "4+",
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"mape_pct": 23.53,
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"median_bias_pct": 14.35,
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"n": 30,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -0.72,
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"p75_pct": 35.27
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}
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},
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"per_segment": {
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"бизнес": {
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"mape_pct": 22.14,
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"median_bias_pct": -21.49,
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"n": 46,
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"p25_pct": -28.22,
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"p75_pct": -9.82
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},
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"комфорт": {
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"mape_pct": 16.74,
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"median_bias_pct": -8.05,
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"n": 104,
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"p25_pct": -20.63,
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"p75_pct": 7.55
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},
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"премиум": {
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"mape_pct": 59.37,
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"median_bias_pct": -59.37,
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"n": 1,
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"p25_pct": -59.37,
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"p75_pct": -59.37
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},
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"эконом": {
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"mape_pct": 18.01,
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"median_bias_pct": 17.17,
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"n": 120,
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"p25_pct": 1.73,
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"p75_pct": 46.96
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},
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"элит": {
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"mape_pct": 38.62,
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"median_bias_pct": -38.62,
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"n": 6,
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"p25_pct": -47.98,
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"p75_pct": -33.18
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}
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}
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},
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"headline": {
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"ask_median_ppm2": 147545.8502510892,
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"deal_median_ppm2": 125063.0,
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"spread_pct": 17.98
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},
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"range_coverage": {
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"overall": {
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"coverage_pct": 80.14,
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"n": 277,
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"n_covered": 222
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},
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"per_confidence": {
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"high": {
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"coverage_pct": null,
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"n": 0,
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"n_covered": 0
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},
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"low": {
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"coverage_pct": 80.0,
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"n": 275,
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"n_covered": 220
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},
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"medium": {
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"coverage_pct": 100.0,
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"n": 2,
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"n_covered": 2
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}
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}
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},
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"sharpness": {
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"median_rel_width": 0.743,
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"n": 277
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}
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}
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