REOPENED 951-B §9.6.
PART A: fix look-ahead leakage in backtest_rate_sensitivity --detrend. The
ln(units) trend was fit over train+test then split, so test data shaped the
detrend and inflated the OOS hit-rate. _detrend_log now takes fit_n; backtest_tier
fits the trend on TRAIN months only (same split evaluate_oos uses) and projects
(a,b) point-in-time onto test. Default fit_n=None preserves prior behaviour.
PART B (DoD): new app/services/forecasting/regression.py — Almon polynomial
distributed-lag (deg 2) of Δln(district demand) on Δkey_rate lags 0..6 via
OLS-on-Almon-regressors (numpy lstsq) + per-lag reconstruction + manual
Newey-West HAC SEs (NO statsmodels). Output {best_lag_months, coef=long-run
multiplier, x_pct, r2, n, per_lag_coef, hac_se,...}; gate mirrors _elasticity_coef
(n<30 OR R²<0.1 OR Σβ≥0 → fallback); §9.6 phrase from the lag shape. ADVISORY,
shipped standalone (integration point documented), NOT wired — protects the live
compute_rate_sensitivity consumers.
125+31 tests (synthetic known-lag recovery, HAC computed/differs-from-OLS,
fallback gating, no-leakage detrend). ruff clean. Refs #978
Light1YT
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