bot-backend
7d9ecb117f
Held-out fit (n=2366 prod deals, 2026-06-27) of log(actual_sold/expected_sold) ~ year + ln(area) gives a multiplicative factor that corrects systematic mis-estimation by building era + unit size (underestimates newer buildings, mis-handles large units). factor = exp(b0 + b_year*(year-2000)/20 + b_larea*ln(area)), clamped [0.75, 1.30]; applied to the expected_sold point BEFORE the calibrated PI range block (so the range follows the corrected point). Headline/asking is untouched. Gated behind estimate_hedonic_correction_enabled (OFF => exact old behavior, proven by the regression gate). Frozen baseline regenerated: overall expected_sold MAPE 18.63->14.24; per-segment median_bias_pct moves toward 0 (бизнес -21.5->-9.2, комфорт -8.0->-3.6, эконом 17.2->4.3); элит mildly better, no harm. Tests that assert the exact ratio relation (expected_sold == headline x ratio) hold the orthogonal hedonic layer OFF.
154 lines
3 KiB
JSON
154 lines
3 KiB
JSON
{
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"calibration": {
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"high": {
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"coverage_pct": null,
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"mape_pct": null,
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"n": 0,
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"n_covered": 0
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},
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"low": {
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"coverage_pct": 82.18,
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"mape_pct": 14.24,
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"n": 275,
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"n_covered": 226
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},
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"medium": {
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"coverage_pct": 100.0,
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"mape_pct": 11.76,
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"n": 2,
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"n_covered": 2
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}
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},
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"confidence_order": [
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"high",
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"medium",
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"low"
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],
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"expected_sold": {
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"overall": {
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"mape_pct": 14.24,
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"median_bias_pct": -2.62,
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"n": 277,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -14.43,
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"p75_pct": 13.18
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},
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"per_rooms": {
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"0": {
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"label": "студия",
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"mape_pct": 19.38,
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"median_bias_pct": 18.1,
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"n": 37,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": 1.66,
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"p75_pct": 33.53
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},
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"1": {
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"label": "1к",
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"mape_pct": 10.97,
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"median_bias_pct": -3.47,
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"n": 93,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -12.48,
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"p75_pct": 6.98
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},
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"2": {
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"label": "2к",
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"mape_pct": 17.39,
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"median_bias_pct": -11.71,
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"n": 74,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -23.37,
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"p75_pct": -0.36
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},
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"3": {
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"label": "3к",
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"mape_pct": 8.41,
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"median_bias_pct": 1.72,
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"n": 43,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -9.8,
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"p75_pct": 7.98
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},
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"4": {
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"label": "4+",
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"mape_pct": 20.27,
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"median_bias_pct": 8.86,
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"n": 30,
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"n_no_analogs": 0,
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"p25_pct": -3.77,
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"p75_pct": 23.54
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}
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},
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"per_segment": {
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"бизнес": {
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"mape_pct": 12.87,
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"median_bias_pct": -9.15,
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"n": 46,
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"p25_pct": -21.89,
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"p75_pct": -0.74
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},
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"комфорт": {
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"mape_pct": 11.93,
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"median_bias_pct": -3.63,
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"n": 104,
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"p25_pct": -15.64,
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"p75_pct": 8.13
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},
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"премиум": {
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"mape_pct": 68.92,
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"median_bias_pct": -68.92,
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"n": 1,
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"p25_pct": -68.92,
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"p75_pct": -68.92
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},
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"эконом": {
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"mape_pct": 15.58,
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"median_bias_pct": 4.28,
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"n": 120,
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"p25_pct": -6.11,
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"p75_pct": 26.09
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},
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"элит": {
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"mape_pct": 31.85,
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"median_bias_pct": -31.85,
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"n": 6,
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"p25_pct": -42.08,
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"p75_pct": -22.4
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}
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}
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},
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"headline": {
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"ask_median_ppm2": 147545.8502510892,
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"deal_median_ppm2": 125063.0,
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"spread_pct": 17.98
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},
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"range_coverage": {
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"overall": {
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"coverage_pct": 82.31,
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"n": 277,
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"n_covered": 228
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},
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"per_confidence": {
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"high": {
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"coverage_pct": null,
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"n": 0,
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"n_covered": 0
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},
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"low": {
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"coverage_pct": 82.18,
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"n": 275,
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"n_covered": 226
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},
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"medium": {
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"coverage_pct": 100.0,
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"n": 2,
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"n_covered": 2
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}
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}
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},
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"sharpness": {
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"median_rel_width": 0.743,
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"n": 277
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}
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}
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