fix(forecasting): deal_count confidence note carries «за N мес» window (#1637) #1684

Merged
lekss361 merged 2 commits from fix/confidence-deal-count-window-1637 into main 2026-06-17 17:57:41 +00:00
3 changed files with 48 additions and 9 deletions

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@ -375,6 +375,7 @@ def compute_report_confidence(
*, *,
component_confidences: list[Confidence] | None = None, component_confidences: list[Confidence] | None = None,
deal_count: int | None = None, deal_count: int | None = None,
deal_count_months: int | None = None,
analog_count: int | None = None, analog_count: int | None = None,
domrf_coverage: float | None = None, domrf_coverage: float | None = None,
history_months: int | None = None, history_months: int | None = None,
@ -403,6 +404,8 @@ def compute_report_confidence(
component_confidences: per-service confidence (#950/#952/#985/#986…), None/[]→ component_confidences: per-service confidence (#950/#952/#985/#986…), None/[]→
нет вкладывающих компонентов. нет вкладывающих компонентов.
deal_count: число сделок за окно (None нет данных, тянет в low). deal_count: число сделок за окно (None нет данных, тянет в low).
deal_count_months: окно наблюдения для deal_count (мес) добавляет «за N мес»
в ноту фактора («7 сделок за 6 мес мало»). None нота без периода.
analog_count: число ЖК-аналогов в выборке (= market_metrics.obj_count). analog_count: число ЖК-аналогов в выборке (= market_metrics.obj_count).
domrf_coverage: доля domrfobjective [0,1] (главный sparse-риск проекта). domrf_coverage: доля domrfobjective [0,1] (главный sparse-риск проекта).
history_months: глубина ряда (мес). history_months: глубина ряда (мес).
@ -417,6 +420,7 @@ def compute_report_confidence(
# ── 1. Сырые счётчики качества данных → факторы (только заданные) ────────── # ── 1. Сырые счётчики качества данных → факторы (только заданные) ──────────
if deal_count is not None: if deal_count is not None:
_deal_suffix = f"за {deal_count_months} мес" if deal_count_months is not None else ""
factors.append( factors.append(
_factor_from_count( _factor_from_count(
_F_DEAL_COUNT, _F_DEAL_COUNT,
@ -424,6 +428,7 @@ def compute_report_confidence(
high_at=_DEAL_COUNT_HIGH, high_at=_DEAL_COUNT_HIGH,
low_below=_DEAL_COUNT_LOW, low_below=_DEAL_COUNT_LOW,
unit="сделок", unit="сделок",
suffix=_deal_suffix,
) )
) )
if analog_count is not None: if analog_count is not None:

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@ -189,10 +189,10 @@ def _domrf_coverage(analyze: dict[str, Any], supply_layers: dict[str, Any] | Non
""" """
if supply_layers is not None: if supply_layers is not None:
coverage = supply_layers.get("domrf_coverage") coverage = supply_layers.get("domrf_coverage")
if isinstance(coverage, (int, float)) and not isinstance(coverage, bool): if isinstance(coverage, int | float) and not isinstance(coverage, bool):
return _clamp_fraction(float(coverage)) return _clamp_fraction(float(coverage))
pct = analyze.get("market_data_coverage_pct") pct = analyze.get("market_data_coverage_pct")
if isinstance(pct, (int, float)) and not isinstance(pct, bool): if isinstance(pct, int | float) and not isinstance(pct, bool):
return _clamp_fraction(float(pct) / 100.0) return _clamp_fraction(float(pct) / 100.0)
return None return None
@ -223,6 +223,19 @@ def _history_months(
return None return None
def _deal_count_months(market_metrics: dict[str, Any] | None) -> int | None:
"""Окно наблюдения для deal_count (мес) — для deal_count_months #990. PURE.
Читает тот же `market_metrics.window_months` (§9.2), что и `_history_months`
именно за это окно считается n_sold. Нет None (#990 пропускает суффикс «за N мес»).
"""
if market_metrics is not None:
window = market_metrics.get("window_months")
if isinstance(window, int) and window > 0:
return window
return None
def _confounded(forecasts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]]) -> bool: def _confounded(forecasts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]]) -> bool:
"""Пересекает ли окно прогноза шок-период — для confounded #990. PURE. """Пересекает ли окно прогноза шок-период — для confounded #990. PURE.
@ -293,10 +306,10 @@ def _primary_deficit_index(forecasts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]]) -> float | None:
) )
if primary is not None and primary.get("deficit_index") is not None: if primary is not None and primary.get("deficit_index") is not None:
di = primary["deficit_index"] di = primary["deficit_index"]
return float(di) if isinstance(di, (int, float)) and not isinstance(di, bool) else None return float(di) if isinstance(di, int | float) and not isinstance(di, bool) else None
for f in forecasts: for f in forecasts:
di = f.get("deficit_index") di = f.get("deficit_index")
if isinstance(di, (int, float)) and not isinstance(di, bool): if isinstance(di, int | float) and not isinstance(di, bool):
return float(di) return float(di)
return None return None
@ -314,10 +327,10 @@ def _primary_months_of_inventory(forecasts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]]) -> float |
) )
if primary is not None and primary.get("months_of_inventory") is not None: if primary is not None and primary.get("months_of_inventory") is not None:
moi = primary["months_of_inventory"] moi = primary["months_of_inventory"]
return float(moi) if isinstance(moi, (int, float)) and not isinstance(moi, bool) else None return float(moi) if isinstance(moi, int | float) and not isinstance(moi, bool) else None
for f in forecasts: for f in forecasts:
moi = f.get("months_of_inventory") moi = f.get("months_of_inventory")
if isinstance(moi, (int, float)) and not isinstance(moi, bool): if isinstance(moi, int | float) and not isinstance(moi, bool):
return float(moi) return float(moi)
return None return None
@ -342,7 +355,7 @@ def _overall_score(product_scores: dict[str, Any] | None) -> float | None:
if not isinstance(product_scores, dict): if not isinstance(product_scores, dict):
return None return None
overall = product_scores.get("overall") overall = product_scores.get("overall")
if isinstance(overall, (int, float)) and not isinstance(overall, bool): if isinstance(overall, int | float) and not isinstance(overall, bool):
return float(overall) return float(overall)
return None return None
@ -388,10 +401,10 @@ def _market_now_summary(
parts: list[str] = [] parts: list[str] = []
if market_metrics is not None: if market_metrics is not None:
velocity = market_metrics.get("unit_velocity") velocity = market_metrics.get("unit_velocity")
if isinstance(velocity, (int, float)) and not isinstance(velocity, bool): if isinstance(velocity, int | float) and not isinstance(velocity, bool):
parts.append(f"абсорбция ~{round(float(velocity), 1)} ед./мес") parts.append(f"абсорбция ~{round(float(velocity), 1)} ед./мес")
avg_price = analyze.get("market_avg_price_per_m2") avg_price = analyze.get("market_avg_price_per_m2")
if isinstance(avg_price, (int, float)) and not isinstance(avg_price, bool): if isinstance(avg_price, int | float) and not isinstance(avg_price, bool):
parts.append(f"средняя цена ~{round(float(avg_price)):,} ₽/м²".replace(",", " ")) parts.append(f"средняя цена ~{round(float(avg_price)):,} ₽/м²".replace(",", " "))
# #1634: НЕ через _analog_count — он отдаёт market_metrics.obj_count (число ЖК во # #1634: НЕ через _analog_count — он отдаёт market_metrics.obj_count (число ЖК во
# всей district-wide/микрорайонной выборке §9.2), что НЕ равно «конкурентов рядом». # всей district-wide/микрорайонной выборке §9.2), что НЕ равно «конкурентов рядом».
@ -618,6 +631,7 @@ def _build_confidence(
market_metrics, future_supply, forecasts, product_scores, special_indices market_metrics, future_supply, forecasts, product_scores, special_indices
), ),
deal_count=_deal_count(analyze, market_metrics), deal_count=_deal_count(analyze, market_metrics),
deal_count_months=_deal_count_months(market_metrics),
analog_count=_analog_count(analyze, market_metrics), analog_count=_analog_count(analyze, market_metrics),
domrf_coverage=_domrf_coverage(analyze, supply_layers), domrf_coverage=_domrf_coverage(analyze, supply_layers),
history_months=_history_months(market_metrics, forecasts), history_months=_history_months(market_metrics, forecasts),

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@ -342,6 +342,26 @@ class TestComputeReportConfidence:
# Полностью JSON-сериализуем (контракт для экспортёров/чата). # Полностью JSON-сериализуем (контракт для экспортёров/чата).
assert json.loads(json.dumps(d, ensure_ascii=False)) == d assert json.loads(json.dumps(d, ensure_ascii=False)) == d
def test_deal_count_note_carries_window_months(self) -> None:
# #1637: deal_count_months → нота «за N мес» в факторе (и в rationale).
res = compute_report_confidence(
deal_count=7,
deal_count_months=6,
advisory=False,
)
dc_factor = next(f for f in res.factors if f.name == "deal_count")
assert "за 6 мес" in dc_factor.note
assert "7 сделок" in dc_factor.note
# Структурная причина тоже содержит период (через ноту фактора-виновника).
assert "за 6 мес" in res.rationale
def test_deal_count_note_without_window_has_no_period(self) -> None:
# deal_count_months=None (по умолчанию) → нота без «за N мес» (backward compat).
res = compute_report_confidence(deal_count=7, advisory=False)
dc_factor = next(f for f in res.factors if f.name == "deal_count")
assert "7 сделок" in dc_factor.note
assert "за" not in dc_factor.note
def test_ignores_garbage_component_confidence(self) -> None: def test_ignores_garbage_component_confidence(self) -> None:
# Мусорный component-уровень не учитывается (whitelist), не роняет искусственно. # Мусорный component-уровень не учитывается (whitelist), не роняет искусственно.
res = compute_report_confidence( res = compute_report_confidence(