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494155654e fix(forecasting): count non-zero observations in normalize guard, not zero-filled buckets (#1638)
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_count_full_years treated units=0 as a valid observation, so a series
where fill_month_grid zero-filled every month still accumulated 3 full
years and passed the _MIN_FULL_YEARS guard.  Zero-filled months carry no
seasonal signal, so they must be skipped in the year counter — the same
way None values already were.

Fix: skip v==0 alongside v is None in _count_full_years.
Add four tests: zero-filled 36-month series → n_full_years=0/applied=False;
partial-coverage years (only 6 non-zero months/year) → not counted as full;
real non-zero series still passes guard; normalize_demand on zero-filled
SalesSeries returns series unchanged.
2026-06-17 20:39:00 +03:00
3ecfc2d7dc feat(forecasting): seasonal (month-of-year) demand normalization (#979)
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REOPENED — normalize.py was never created; only rate-regime discount existed.
New backend/app/services/forecasting/normalize.py with normalize_demand(series):
multiplicative month-of-year deseasonalization of the raw monthly demand
SalesSeries (§9.4). Pure/deterministic; min-data guard (<2 full years / empty
month / overall_mean<=0 → factor 1.0, no divide-by-zero, no thin-data noise).
Exposes seasonal factors for explainability. Synthetic unit test: seasonality
removed (month means equalised), flat unchanged, thin/empty/all-zero safe.

DoD (module + doc + test) MET. Production wiring into
rate_sensitivity._align_sales_deltas DEFERRED (documented TODO): deseasonalizing
the short rate-driven series perturbs the recovered β/lag on current data —
needs a points-per-month gate / joint seasonal+rate estimation + backtest before
wiring. Forecast stack is advisory regardless. Refs #979
2026-06-04 11:19:50 +05:00