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Author SHA1 Message Date
3a13bce468 fix(forecasting): savepoint db.execute failures to stop §22 session poisoning (#2464)
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One layer's caught DB error left the shared §22 report Session in Postgres's
"aborted transaction" state with no rollback, silently emptying every later
layer on the same report. Wrap each failure point in db.begin_nested()
(SAVEPOINT): orchestrator._safe_call, macro_series _query_key_rate_monthly /
_query_inflation_monthly / _query_mortgage_monthly (per indicator),
special_indices._run (per index), and sales_series _query_source_a /
_query_source_b — so a sibling builder's failure no longer cascades.

Also close the RELEASE-SAVEPOINT trap: inner helpers that swallowed a
db.execute failure without their own savepoint left the tx aborted, so the
outer builder's savepoint failed at RELEASE (illegal in an aborted tx) and
poisoning still cascaded. Add savepoints at the inner catch sites —
special_indices._query_parcel_centroid and district_resolver._admin_names /
resolve_objective_districts.

Refs #2464 (cluster A session-poisoning).
2026-07-07 17:50:17 +05:00
e4975c486f fix(forecasting): correct _geo_weight decay/floor so far projects get low weight (#1633)
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_GEO_WEIGHT_UNKNOWN was 0.1, which equals exp(−6.9/3)≈0.10 (weight of a
confirmed-far project at ~6.9 km). Projects beyond that distance got a
weight *below* 0.1, meaning unknown-coordinate projects outweighed
confirmed-far ones — an inversion of the documented intent.

Lowered to 0.05 (≈ exp(−3) = exp(−9 km / scale)), restoring the correct
hierarchy: confirmed-close > confirmed-far > unknown. Updated TestGeoWeight
(hardcoded 0.1 expectation) and TestCannibalizationTrueMode (overlap ×
floor comment/value) accordingly. Added two new assertions in TestGeoWeight
that enforce the hierarchy monotonically and verify unknown < exp(−6.9/3).
2026-06-17 20:44:00 +03:00
10df430cac fix(forecasting): _price_overlap zero-width discontinuity at §25.3 (#1224)
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Degenerate price band (own_min==own_max или c_lo==c_hi, оба разрешены
CHECK 148 и Pydantic) внутри другой вилки возвращали 0.0 вместо 1.0:
фильтр w>0 выкидывал нулевую ширину → 0/positive=0.0. Это рвало
докстринг 'полное накрытие узкого = 1.0' и давало разрыв:
[148k,152k]→1.0 vs [150k,150k]→0.0, занижая среднее каннибализации.

Patch: вырожденные ширины обрабатываются ДО нормирования.
lo<=hi → точка внутри другой вилки → 1.0, вне → 0.0. +inf-обе-премиум
ветка перенесена в начало (избежать inf-inf=nan). +7 новых тестов в
TestPriceOverlap. 220 special_indices тестов зелёные.

Closes #1224
2026-06-13 08:10:46 +00:00
c48f45c48f fix(forecasting): resolve admin district to micros в _query_artificial_demand (#1205)
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objective_lots.district хранит МИКРО-вокабуляр ('Уралмаш', 'ЖБИ', ...).
_query_artificial_demand фильтровал сырым АДМИН-именем ('Кировский' с
forecast.py:123) → ol.district='Кировский' = 0 строк → n_sold=0 → §25.5
Artificial Demand 'unavailable' с ложной причиной «нет проданных лотов»
в каждом district-scoped отчёте. Тот же класс бага, что #1211 в
_price_sensitivity.

Patch: импорт resolve_objective_districts + замена сырого
`ol.district = CAST(:district AS text)` на зеркальный паттерн
sales_series._SOURCE_B_SQL / market_metrics._SALES_WINDOW_SQL:
  (CAST(:has_district AS boolean) IS FALSE
   OR ol.district = ANY(CAST(:districts AS text[])))

Сигнатура _query_artificial_demand / _build_artificial_demand НЕ меняется
— caller остаётся admin-aware на входе.

+5 новых тестов (TestArtificialDemandDistrictResolution: резолвер вызван,
микро в bind, n_sold>0 после фикса), 6 обновлённых SQL-тестов. 21 passed
artificial_demand + 1030 forecasting тестов зелёные. ruff clean.

Closes #1205
2026-06-13 07:34:54 +00:00
c9720a6212 feat(forecasting): activate §25.3 cannibalization unit-mix axis (4/4), gated (#1169)
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Feed candidate_unit_mix into _build_cannibalization (mirrors how #1169 fed
candidate_release_month from the launch window), completing §25.3 to all 4 axes:
class + price + timing + unit-mix, plus geo weight.

- candidate mix from recommend_mix "buckets[].share_pct" (same rule-based
  квартирография as §22 product_tz), extracted + normalized to {bucket: share}.
- _canonical_room_bucket folds recommend_mix RU labels ("1-к 30-45", "80+ м²")
  and manual own_planned_project Latin keys ("1k") into one room-count space —
  without it the L1 similarity would silently be 0 (disjoint keys).
- recommend_mix is HEAVY, so it's GATED: derived only when the own-portfolio has
  >=1 project with a non-empty unit_mix; get_own_portfolio fetched once in
  compute_special_indices and threaded into _build_cannibalization (no double
  fetch). With OWN_DEVELOPER_IDS unset (portfolio empty) → zero added cost on the
  hot §22 report path.
- Graceful (recommend_mix None/empty/raises → axis excluded, None-not-0),
  deterministic. Unit-mix only fires for manual-future own-projects with a mix
  (domrf-current carry unit_mix=None) — expected narrowness, documented.

205 tests; ruff + mypy clean. Scope: special_indices.py + test only; no deps.

Refs #1169
2026-06-09 16:09:29 +05:00
cd48a095c0 feat(forecasting): activate §25.3 cannibalization timing axis from launch window (#1169)
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Derive candidate_release_month = report-as-of (date.today()) + §25.1 Launch
Window peak-deficit horizon, threaded into _build_cannibalization so the timing
overlap axis activates against own-portfolio release_month (near-in-time own
projects raise cannibalization risk). Launch Window now computed once in
compute_special_indices and reused (no double-compute). Launch Window
unavailable -> candidate_release_month None -> timing axis gracefully excluded
(None-not-0); cannibalization still scores on class/price/geo. Adds stdlib
_add_months helper (year-boundary safe, no new dep). Deterministic. 168 tests.

§25.3 now: class+price+timing+geo active; unit-mix remains phase-2.

Refs #1169
2026-06-09 07:10:59 +00:00
347203dfda feat(forecasting): §25.3 TRUE own-portfolio cannibalization overlap (#1169 PR2)
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Upgrade the §25.3 cannibalization index from a same-class-competitor proxy to
true own-portfolio overlap: score the recommended candidate segment against the
developer's own portfolio (get_own_portfolio, #1169 PR1) across axes —
audience/class (ordinal distance), price ₽/м² (interval overlap), unit-mix
(L1 similarity), timing (half-life decay) — geo-weighted by haversine proximity
to the parcel, aggregated by geo-weighted soft-max (the strongest nearby
cannibalizer dominates, not a diluting mean). Empty portfolio -> labelled proxy
fallback, confidence forced low, never presented as the true index.

Pure scoring fns unit-tested without DB; None-not-0 on missing axes; thin/
only-current portfolio -> low confidence + §26 note; deterministic (sorted
tie-breaks, no RNG). class+price+geo active now; unit-mix+timing plumbed via
optional params for a follow-up that wires them from the orchestrator horizon.
ruff + mypy clean; 151 special-index tests pass (964 forecasting dir, no regr).

Refs #1169
2026-06-08 16:47:18 +05:00
008f9d9ed1 feat(forecasting): §25 six special indices (#986, 954-C) (#1018)
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2026-06-03 08:24:08 +00:00