feat(sf): 6.6 in-app future-supply pressure + pipeline competitors (§13.3)

Surface the §16-traceability evidence behind the supply forecast that
previously lived only in exports: future_market.future_supply (§9.3
supply-pressure breakdown — open/hidden stock, absorption, months of
pressure, future units, pressure index) and future_market.future_competitors
(§9.7 relevance-weighted pipeline, sorted by relevance desc). New
ForecastFutureSupplyBlock as subsection 6.6 (+ section-6-6 nav),
complementing 6.1's per-horizon aggregates.

- Fix FutureSupply/FutureSupplyBreakdown/FutureCompetitor optionality in
  forecast.ts to match the backend (FutureSupplyPressure/Competitor): null
  metrics typed + rendered «нет данных», never a fabricated 0.
- Supply panel gates on computed metrics (index/pressure), NOT open/hidden
  unit stocks — so the empty-supply_layers state (pre Monday-worker, every
  parcel today) hides the panel instead of falsely showing "0 ед."; the
  competitor table still renders. hasSupplySignal shared in forecast-helpers.
- RU labels reuse report_pdf/excel export wording. Graceful on partial/202.

Part of #958; surfaces #950 future-supply data.

frontend/src/app/site-finder/analysis/[cad]/AnalysisPageContent.tsx

@@ -263,6 +263,7 @@ const NAV_ITEMS = [
       { id: "section-6-3", label: "6.3 Уверенность" },
       { id: "section-6-4", label: "6.4 Рекомендация по продукту" },
       { id: "section-6-5", label: "6.5 Прозрачность скоринга" },
+      { id: "section-6-6", label: "6.6 Будущее предложение и конкуренты" },
     ],
   },
 ];

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/ForecastFutureSupplyBlock.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,449 @@
+"use client";
+
+/**
+ * 6.6 Будущее предложение и конкуренты — §13.3 future_market evidence (#950/#949).
+ *
+ * The §16-traceability evidence BEHIND the supply forecast. 6.1's per-horizon
+ * table shows the aggregate deficit; this block surfaces the two detail layers
+ * that, until now, lived only in the exports:
+ *
+ *   • Supply-pressure panel (from `future_market.future_supply`, §9.3) — the
+ *     FutureSupplyPressure breakdown as labeled stat cells: открытый сток /
+ *     скрытый запас / поглощение / месяцев давления / будущий слой в горизонте,
+ *     with district + premise_kind + horizon context + a confidence badge. The
+ *     pressure index (∈ 0…1) gets a token bar — higher = more queued supply.
+ *   • Future-competitors table (from `future_market.future_competitors`, §9.7) —
+ *     the relevance-weighted pipeline competition, sorted by relevance_weight
+ *     desc, with a 0…1 token bar for relevance.
+ *
+ * RU labels reuse the established export wording (report_pdf / excel
+ * `_future_supply_pairs`): «Открытый сток», «Скрытый запас», «Будущий слой в
+ * горизонте», «Поглощение», «Месяцев давления», «Индекс давления».
+ *
+ * GRACEFUL: returns null when BOTH future_supply and future_competitors are
+ * absent/empty; each part is guarded independently; a null metric renders «нет
+ * данных» (never a 0-bar implying a real zero); an empty competitor list skips
+ * the table entirely. No crash on a partial / 202-pending report.
+ */
+
+import type {
+  ConfidenceLevel,
+  FutureCompetitor,
+  FutureSupply,
+  FutureSupplyBreakdown,
+} from "@/types/forecast";
+
+import { Badge } from "@/components/ui/Badge";
+import {
+  CONFIDENCE_RU,
+  confidenceVariant,
+  fmtNum,
+  hasSupplySignal,
+} from "./forecast-helpers";
+
+interface Props {
+  /** §9.3 future-supply pressure (evidence behind the supply forecast). */
+  futureSupply: FutureSupply | null;
+  /** §9.7 relevance-weighted pipeline competitors. */
+  futureCompetitors: FutureCompetitor[];
+}
+
+const NO_DATA = "нет данных";
+
+const SUBHEAD_STYLE: React.CSSProperties = {
+  fontSize: 11,
+  fontWeight: 500,
+  letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+  textTransform: "uppercase",
+  color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+};
+
+const HINT_STYLE: React.CSSProperties = {
+  margin: 0,
+  fontSize: 12,
+  lineHeight: 1.5,
+  color: "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+};
+
+// ── ForecastFutureSupplyBlock ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export function ForecastFutureSupplyBlock({
+  futureSupply,
+  futureCompetitors,
+}: Props) {
+  const showSupply = hasSupplySignal(futureSupply);
+  const competitors = futureCompetitors.filter(
+    (c): c is FutureCompetitor => c != null && typeof c.obj_id === "number",
+  );
+  const showCompetitors = competitors.length > 0;
+
+  // Graceful: nothing meaningful in either part → render nothing.
+  if (!showSupply && !showCompetitors) return null;
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 24 }}>
+      {showSupply && futureSupply && (
+        <SupplyPressurePanel supply={futureSupply} />
+      )}
+      {showCompetitors && <CompetitorsTable competitors={competitors} />}
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+// ── Supply-pressure panel (§9.3) ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function SupplyPressurePanel({ supply }: { supply: FutureSupply }) {
+  const b = supply.breakdown;
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 12 }}>
+      {/* Header: subhead + context (район · помещение · горизонт) + confidence. */}
+      <div
+        style={{
+          display: "flex",
+          flexWrap: "wrap",
+          alignItems: "center",
+          gap: 8,
+        }}
+      >
+        <span style={SUBHEAD_STYLE}>Давление будущего предложения</span>
+        <SupplyContext supply={supply} />
+        <ConfidencePill level={supply.confidence} />
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Pressure index — token bar (∈ 0…1, higher = more queued supply). */}
+      <PressureIndexBar index={supply.index} />
+
+      {/* Breakdown — labeled stat cells (the §16 evidence). */}
+      <StatGrid breakdown={b} />
+
+      <p style={HINT_STYLE}>
+        Месяцев давления — сколько месяцев конкурирующего предложения (скрытый
+        запас плюс будущий слой) стоит в очереди при текущем темпе поглощения.
+        Индекс давления ∈ 0…1: выше — больше грядущего предложения относительно
+        скорости рынка.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function SupplyContext({ supply }: { supply: FutureSupply }) {
+  const parts: string[] = [];
+  if (supply.district) parts.push(supply.district);
+  if (supply.premise_kind) parts.push(supply.premise_kind);
+  parts.push(`горизонт ${supply.horizon_months} мес.`);
+  if (parts.length === 0) return null;
+  return (
+    <span style={{ fontSize: 12, color: "var(--fg-tertiary)" }}>
+      {parts.join(" · ")}
+    </span>
+  );
+}
+
+function ConfidencePill({ level }: { level: ConfidenceLevel }) {
+  return (
+    <Badge variant={confidenceVariant(level)} size="sm">
+      уверенность {CONFIDENCE_RU[level]}
+    </Badge>
+  );
+}
+
+function PressureIndexBar({ index }: { index: number | null }) {
+  const hasValue = index != null;
+  const widthPct = hasValue ? Math.max(0, Math.min(100, index * 100)) : 0;
+  const valueStr = hasValue ? fmtNum(index, 2) : NO_DATA;
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 3 }}>
+      <div
+        style={{
+          display: "flex",
+          alignItems: "baseline",
+          justifyContent: "space-between",
+          gap: 12,
+        }}
+      >
+        <span style={{ fontSize: 13, color: "var(--fg-primary)" }}>
+          Индекс давления
+        </span>
+        <span
+          style={{
+            fontSize: 12,
+            color: hasValue ? "var(--fg-secondary)" : "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+            fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+            flexShrink: 0,
+          }}
+        >
+          {valueStr}
+        </span>
+      </div>
+      <div
+        style={{
+          position: "relative",
+          height: 8,
+          borderRadius: 6,
+          background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+          border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+          overflow: "hidden",
+        }}
+        role="img"
+        aria-label={`Индекс давления: ${valueStr}`}
+      >
+        <div
+          style={{
+            position: "absolute",
+            insetBlock: 0,
+            insetInlineStart: 0,
+            width: `${widthPct}%`,
+            // Pressure is a risk signal — accent fill (neutral valence, not
+            // success/danger): the index value carries the meaning, not colour.
+            background: "var(--accent)",
+            borderRadius: 6,
+          }}
+        />
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+// ── Breakdown stat cells ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface StatCell {
+  label: string;
+  value: number | null;
+  digits: number;
+}
+
+function StatGrid({ breakdown }: { breakdown: FutureSupplyBreakdown }) {
+  // RU labels reuse the export wording (report_pdf / excel _future_supply_pairs).
+  const cells: StatCell[] = [
+    { label: "Открытый сток, ед.", value: breakdown.open_units, digits: 0 },
+    { label: "Скрытый запас, ед.", value: breakdown.hidden_units, digits: 0 },
+    {
+      label: "Будущий слой в горизонте, ед.",
+      value: breakdown.future_units_by_horizon,
+      digits: 1,
+    },
+    {
+      label: "Поглощение, ед./мес",
+      value: breakdown.monthly_absorption_units,
+      digits: 1,
+    },
+    {
+      label: "Месяцев давления",
+      value: breakdown.months_of_pressure,
+      digits: 1,
+    },
+  ];
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      style={{
+        display: "grid",
+        gridTemplateColumns: "repeat(auto-fit, minmax(160px, 1fr))",
+        gap: 8,
+      }}
+    >
+      {cells.map((c) => (
+        <StatCellView key={c.label} cell={c} />
+      ))}
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function StatCellView({ cell }: { cell: StatCell }) {
+  const { value } = cell;
+  const hasValue = value != null;
+  const valueStr = hasValue ? fmtNum(value, cell.digits) : NO_DATA;
+  return (
+    <div
+      style={{
+        display: "flex",
+        flexDirection: "column",
+        gap: 4,
+        padding: "10px 12px",
+        background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+        border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+        borderRadius: 8,
+      }}
+    >
+      <span style={SUBHEAD_STYLE}>{cell.label}</span>
+      <span
+        style={{
+          fontSize: 18,
+          fontWeight: 600,
+          color: hasValue ? "var(--fg-primary)" : "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+          fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+        }}
+      >
+        {valueStr}
+      </span>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+// ── Future-competitors table (§9.7) ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const TH_STYLE: React.CSSProperties = {
+  textAlign: "left",
+  padding: "8px 12px",
+  fontSize: 11,
+  fontWeight: 500,
+  letterSpacing: "0.04em",
+  textTransform: "uppercase",
+  color: "var(--fg-secondary)",
+  whiteSpace: "nowrap",
+  borderBottom: "1px solid var(--border-card)",
+};
+
+const TD_STYLE: React.CSSProperties = {
+  padding: "10px 12px",
+  fontSize: 13,
+  color: "var(--fg-primary)",
+  verticalAlign: "middle",
+  borderBottom: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+  fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+};
+
+const NUM_TD: React.CSSProperties = { ...TD_STYLE, textAlign: "right" };
+const NUM_TH: React.CSSProperties = { ...TH_STYLE, textAlign: "right" };
+
+function CompetitorsTable({
+  competitors,
+}: {
+  competitors: FutureCompetitor[];
+}) {
+  // Sort by relevance_weight desc; nulls sink to the bottom (no fabricated 0).
+  const rows = [...competitors].sort(
+    (a, b) => (b.relevance_weight ?? -1) - (a.relevance_weight ?? -1),
+  );
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", flexDirection: "column", gap: 8 }}>
+      <span style={SUBHEAD_STYLE}>Будущие конкуренты ({rows.length})</span>
+      <div style={{ overflowX: "auto" }}>
+        <table
+          style={{
+            width: "100%",
+            borderCollapse: "collapse",
+            minWidth: 640,
+          }}
+        >
+          <thead>
+            <tr>
+              <th style={TH_STYLE}>Название</th>
+              <th style={TH_STYLE}>Класс</th>
+              <th style={NUM_TH}>Расстояние</th>
+              <th style={NUM_TH}>Квартир</th>
+              <th style={NUM_TH}>Скорость/мес</th>
+              <th style={{ ...TH_STYLE, minWidth: 140 }}>Релевантность</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody>
+            {rows.map((c) => (
+              <CompetitorRow key={c.obj_id} competitor={c} />
+            ))}
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+      <p style={HINT_STYLE}>
+        Релевантность ∈ 0…1 — взвешенный сигнал близости, класса, цены и стадии
+        к горизонту (§9.7). Список — top-N будущих конкурентов по релевантности.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function CompetitorRow({ competitor }: { competitor: FutureCompetitor }) {
+  const name = competitor.comm_name?.trim() || "Без названия";
+  const rw = competitor.relevance_weight;
+  return (
+    <tr>
+      <td style={{ ...TD_STYLE, maxWidth: 280 }}>
+        <span
+          title={name}
+          style={{
+            display: "block",
+            overflow: "hidden",
+            textOverflow: "ellipsis",
+            whiteSpace: "nowrap",
+          }}
+        >
+          {name}
+        </span>
+      </td>
+      <td style={TD_STYLE}>
+        {competitor.obj_class ? (
+          <Badge variant="neutral" size="sm">
+            {competitor.obj_class}
+          </Badge>
+        ) : (
+          <span style={{ color: "var(--fg-tertiary)" }}>{NO_DATA}</span>
+        )}
+      </td>
+      <td style={NUM_TD}>
+        {competitor.distance_m != null
+          ? `${fmtNum(competitor.distance_m, 0)} м`
+          : NO_DATA}
+      </td>
+      <td style={NUM_TD}>
+        {competitor.flats_total != null
+          ? competitor.flats_total.toLocaleString("ru")
+          : NO_DATA}
+      </td>
+      <td style={NUM_TD}>
+        {competitor.velocity_per_month != null
+          ? fmtNum(competitor.velocity_per_month, 1)
+          : NO_DATA}
+      </td>
+      <td style={TD_STYLE}>
+        <RelevanceBar value={rw} />
+      </td>
+    </tr>
+  );
+}
+
+function RelevanceBar({ value }: { value: number | null }) {
+  const hasValue = value != null;
+  const widthPct = hasValue ? Math.max(0, Math.min(100, value * 100)) : 0;
+  const valueStr = hasValue ? fmtNum(value, 2) : NO_DATA;
+  return (
+    <div style={{ display: "flex", alignItems: "center", gap: 8 }}>
+      <div
+        style={{
+          position: "relative",
+          flex: 1,
+          minWidth: 64,
+          height: 8,
+          borderRadius: 6,
+          background: "var(--bg-card-alt)",
+          border: "1px solid var(--border-soft)",
+          overflow: "hidden",
+        }}
+        role="img"
+        aria-label={`Релевантность: ${valueStr}`}
+      >
+        <div
+          style={{
+            position: "absolute",
+            insetBlock: 0,
+            insetInlineStart: 0,
+            width: `${widthPct}%`,
+            background: "var(--accent)",
+            borderRadius: 6,
+          }}
+        />
+      </div>
+      <span
+        style={{
+          fontSize: 12,
+          color: hasValue ? "var(--fg-secondary)" : "var(--fg-tertiary)",
+          fontVariantNumeric: "tabular-nums",
+          flexShrink: 0,
+          minWidth: 36,
+          textAlign: "right",
+        }}
+      >
+        {valueStr}
+      </span>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/Section6Forecast.tsx

@@ -16,6 +16,8 @@
  *   6.3 Уверенность              → ForecastConfidenceBlock
  *   6.4 Рекомендация по продукту → ForecastProductTzBlock (что строить — §13.4)
  *   6.5 Прозрачность скоринга    → ForecastScoringBlock (почему скор — §13.6)
+ *   6.6 Будущее предложение и конкуренты → ForecastFutureSupplyBlock
+ *       (§16-evidence за прогнозом предложения — §9.3 давление + §9.7 конкуренты)
  *   advisory disclaimer (footer)
  */
 
@@ -32,8 +34,14 @@ import { ScenariosBlock } from "./ScenariosBlock";
 import { ForecastConfidenceBlock } from "./ForecastConfidenceBlock";
 import { ForecastProductTzBlock } from "./ForecastProductTzBlock";
 import { ForecastScoringBlock } from "./ForecastScoringBlock";
+import { ForecastFutureSupplyBlock } from "./ForecastFutureSupplyBlock";
 import { ForecastExportButtons } from "./ForecastExportButtons";
-import { CONFIDENCE_RU, deficitVariant, fmtNum } from "./forecast-helpers";
+import {
+  CONFIDENCE_RU,
+  deficitVariant,
+  fmtNum,
+  hasSupplySignal,
+} from "./forecast-helpers";
 
 interface Props {
   cad: string;
@@ -214,8 +222,21 @@ function ForecastReady({
       (sc.special_indices != null &&
         Object.keys(sc.special_indices.indices).length > 0));
 
+  // 6.6 — будущее предложение и конкуренты (§13.3 evidence). future_supply is
+  // shown only when it carries a genuinely-computed pressure signal (see
+  // hasSupplySignal — gates on computed metrics, NOT open/hidden stock which are
+  // 0-not-null when supply_layers is unloaded); future_competitors when the list
+  // is non-empty. The per-horizon 6.1 table stays the aggregate; this is the detail.
+  const hasFutureSupplyDetail =
+    hasSupplySignal(fm.future_supply) || fm.future_competitors.length > 0;
+
   const hasAny =
-    hasHorizons || hasScenarios || hasConfidence || hasProductTz || hasScoring;
+    hasHorizons ||
+    hasScenarios ||
+    hasConfidence ||
+    hasProductTz ||
+    hasScoring ||
+    hasFutureSupplyDetail;
 
   // Headline subtitle = future_market summary (one sentence «откуда / что значит»).
   const subtitle = fm.summary ?? undefined;
@@ -360,6 +381,19 @@ function ForecastReady({
           </SubBlock>
         )}
 
+        {/* 6.6 Будущее предложение и конкуренты — §16-evidence за прогнозом (§13.3) */}
+        {hasFutureSupplyDetail && (
+          <SubBlock
+            id="section-6-6"
+            title="6.6 Будущее предложение и конкуренты"
+          >
+            <ForecastFutureSupplyBlock
+              futureSupply={fm.future_supply}
+              futureCompetitors={fm.future_competitors}
+            />
+          </SubBlock>
+        )}
+
         {/* Advisory disclaimer */}
         <p
           style={{

frontend/src/components/site-finder/analysis/forecast-helpers.ts

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
  */
 
 import type { BadgeVariant } from "@/components/ui/Badge";
-import type { ConfidenceLevel } from "@/types/forecast";
+import type { ConfidenceLevel, FutureSupply } from "@/types/forecast";
 
 /** Below this |deficit_index| we treat the market as balanced (neutral). */
 export const DEFICIT_BALANCE_EPS = 0.05;
@@ -125,6 +125,35 @@ export const SPECIAL_INDEX_RU: Record<string, string> = {
   cost_of_error: "Цена ошибки",
 };
 
+// ── Future supply (§9.3 — 6.6 evidence panel) ──────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Does the §9.3 future-supply payload carry a GENUINELY-COMPUTED pressure signal
+ * worth rendering the supply panel for? Single source of truth — gates both the
+ * 6.6 block's panel and Section6Forecast's 6.6 sub-block (so they can't drift).
+ *
+ * Gates on the `_round_or_none` metrics ONLY (index / months_of_pressure /
+ * future_units_by_horizon / monthly_absorption_units) — DELIBERATELY excludes
+ * `open_units` / `hidden_units`. Those are integer stocks that are 0-NOT-NULL at
+ * the source: when `supply_layers` is empty (e.g. before the Monday 06:00 worker
+ * loads it) the SQL returns 0 rows → open/hidden = 0 while every computed metric
+ * is null. Triggering on open/hidden would render «Открытый сток: 0 ед. / Скрытый
+ * запас: 0 ед.», falsely reading as "zero future supply = safe" when the truth is
+ * "supply data not loaded yet" (null ≠ 0). Gating on the computed metrics keeps
+ * the panel OFF until a real pressure index exists; open/hidden are still DISPLAYED
+ * once it does (a genuine 0 then is honest).
+ */
+export function hasSupplySignal(fs: FutureSupply | null): boolean {
+  if (fs == null) return false;
+  const b = fs.breakdown;
+  return (
+    fs.index != null ||
+    b.months_of_pressure != null ||
+    b.future_units_by_horizon != null ||
+    b.monthly_absorption_units != null
+  );
+}
+
 // ── Number formatting ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 /**

frontend/src/types/forecast.ts

@@ -28,13 +28,21 @@ export interface ForecastSegment {
 
 // ── Future competitor (forward-looking, distinct from market_now competitors) ─
 
+/**
+ * §9.7 forward-looking competitor (top-N by `relevance_weight` at the horizon).
+ * Shape mirrors the backend `Competitor` schema (`schemas/parcel.py`) as flattened
+ * by `_competitor_to_dict` (demand_supply_forecast.py): `distance_m` /
+ * `velocity_per_month` are required floats there, while `comm_name` / `obj_class` /
+ * `flats_total` / `relevance_weight` are nullable — null is rendered as «нет данных»,
+ * never a fabricated 0.
+ */
 export interface FutureCompetitor {
   obj_id: number;
   comm_name: string | null;
   obj_class: string | null;
   distance_m: number;
-  flats_total: number;
-  relevance_weight: number;
+  flats_total: number | null;
+  relevance_weight: number | null;
   velocity_per_month: number;
 }
 
@@ -81,17 +89,30 @@ export interface ReportExecSummary {
 
 // ── Future market ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
+/**
+ * §9.3 future-supply-pressure breakdown (FutureSupplyPressure.breakdown()).
+ * `open_units` / `hidden_units` are integer unit stocks (never null at the
+ * source); `future_units_by_horizon` / `monthly_absorption_units` /
+ * `months_of_pressure` / `index` go through `_round_or_none` and are null when the
+ * market signal is missing (no absorption → давление неизмеримо) — rendered as
+ * «нет данных», never a fabricated 0.
+ */
 export interface FutureSupplyBreakdown {
-  index: number;
+  index: number | null;
   open_units: number;
   hidden_units: number;
-  months_of_pressure: number;
-  future_units_by_horizon: number;
-  monthly_absorption_units: number;
+  months_of_pressure: number | null;
+  future_units_by_horizon: number | null;
+  monthly_absorption_units: number | null;
 }
 
+/**
+ * §9.3 future supply pressure (FutureSupplyPressure.as_dict()). `confidence` and
+ * `horizon_months` are always present at the source; `index` is null on thin data;
+ * `district` / `premise_kind` may be null (EKB-wide / unspecified).
+ */
 export interface FutureSupply {
-  index: number;
+  index: number | null;
   district: string | null;
   breakdown: FutureSupplyBreakdown;
   confidence: ConfidenceLevel;